Spatio-temporal effects of human drivers on fire danger in Mediterranean Chile
Spatio-temporal effects of human drivers on fire danger in Mediterranean Chile
复制标题
DOI：
10.4067/s0717-92002012000300016
复制
发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Silva, Jorge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carmona, Alejandra;González, Mauro E;Silva, Jorge
这项研究的目的是分析人为因素，特别是土地利用和覆盖变化(LUCC)如何影响智利中部地中海地区的野火危险。LUCC的主要驱动因素与社会经济条件的变化有关，这对景观结构和野火危险有很大影响。着火和可燃性被评估为火灾危险的关键成分。根据国家森林公司(CONAF)的火灾记录以及地理、生物物理和社会经济数据库，使用自回归方法对1999年和2009年的着火概率进行了建模。可燃性是通过结合1999年的国家植被地籍及其2009年的更新和Julio(1995)开发的燃料模型来评估的。对可燃性进行了时空分析，并与主要的LUCC过程相关，即种植园扩张、森林再生和农业废弃。我们将点火概率和可燃性分析结合起来，生成了野火危险地图。结果表明，火灾危险性是一个动态指标，在很大程度上取决于人为因素。到1999年，处于高度火灾危险下的面积为31,399公顷，而到2009年，这一面积增加了54,705公顷。在这两个时期，野火危险具有相似的空间分布，集中在主要道路、城市和较大城镇附近(占高火险区的26.3%)。高火险区集中在外来森林种植园覆盖的区域(33.2%)。这些结果为更有效地设计消防策略提供了依据。
The aim of this study was to analyze how human factors, specifically land use and cover change (LUCC), influence wildfire danger in a mediterranean region of central Chile. Main drivers of LUCC were associated with changes in socio-economic conditions, which had strong effects on the structure of the landscape and on the danger of wildfires. Ignition and flammability were evaluated as key components of fire danger. Ignition probability was modeled for 1999 and 2009 using an autologistic regression, based on fire records from Corporacion Nacional Forestal (CONAF) and geographic, biophysical, and socioeconomic databases. Flammability was assessed by combining the National Vegetation Cadastre of 1999 and its update of 2009, and the fuel model developed by Julio (1995). Spatiotemporal analysis of flammability was performed and related with primary LUCC processes, namely, plantation expansion, forest regrowth, and agricultural abandonment. We combined the ignition probability and flammability analysis to produce wildfire danger maps. Results show that fire danger is a dynamic indicator that depends largely on human factors. By 1999, the area under high fire danger comprised 31,399 ha, whereas by 2009 this area had increased by 54,705 ha. For both periods, wildfire danger had a similar spatial distribution, concentrating near main roads, cities, and larger towns (26.3 % of the high fire danger area). Also high fire danger areas concentrated over zones covered by exotic forest plantations (33.2 %). These results provide a basis for a more effective design of fire control strategies.