A Model of Secular Stagnation
A Model of Secular Stagnation
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长期停滞模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Neil R. Mehrotra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gauti B. Eggertsson;Neil R. Mehrotra
我们提出了一个世代重叠的新凯恩斯主义模型，在这个模型中，一个永久的（或非常持续的）衰退是可能的，而没有任何自我纠正的力量来实现充分就业。衰退的触发因素是去杠杆化冲击，这造成了储蓄供过于求。在同一个方向上起作用的其他力量既可能造成问题，也可能加剧问题，包括人口增长下降、收入不平等加剧和投资相对价格下降。我们的模型揭示了日本危机的长期持续，大萧条，以及大衰退的缓慢复苏。它还强调了对政策的几个影响。
We propose an overlapping generations New Keynesian model in which a permanent (or very persistent) slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full employment. The trigger for the slump is a deleveraging shock, which creates an oversupply of savings. Other forces that work in the same direction and can both create or exacerbate the problem include a drop in population growth, an increase in income inequality, and a fall in the relative price of investment. Our model sheds light on the long persistence of the Japanese crisis, the Great Depression, and the slow recovery out of the Great Recession. It also highlights several implications for policy.