Inflation, money, and real GDP in Mexico: a causality analysis
Inflation, money, and real GDP in Mexico: a causality analysis
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墨西哥的通货膨胀、货币和实际 GDP：因果关系分析
DOI：
10.1080/1350485042000193834
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Frederick H. Wallace
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. L. Shelley;Frederick H. Wallace
使用1944年至1991年的年度数据检验了墨西哥的通货膨胀、M1货币和实际GDP之间的关系。在调查通货膨胀变化与实际GDP增长之间的关系时，发现将通货膨胀变化分为可预测和不可预测的部分是很重要的。差异通胀的可预测增长被发现对实际GDP增长有显著的负面影响。研究发现，差异通胀的不可预测增长对实际GDP增长有显著的积极影响。相比之下，即使将货币增长的变化分为可预测和不可预测的部分，M1增长的变化也不能引起格兰杰导致的实际GDP增长。
The relation between inflation, M1 money, and real GDP in Mexico is examined using annual data from 1944 to 1991. When investigating the relation between changes in inflation and real GDP growth it is found that it is important to separate the changes in inflation into predictable and unpredictable components. Predictable increases in differenced inflation are found to have a significant, negative effect on real GDP growth. Unpredictable increases in differenced inflation are found to have a significant, positive effect on real GDP growth. In contrast, changes in M1 growth fail to Granger-cause real GDP growth even when the changes in money growth are divided into predictable and unpredictable components.