Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California
Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-007-9362-0
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发表时间：
2008-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Drapek, Raymond
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lenihan, James M.;Bachelet, Dominique;Drapek, Raymond
利用MC 1动态通用植被模型模拟了加州植被分布、碳和火对未来气候变化三种情景的响应。在所有三种情况下，高山/亚高山森林覆盖率下降，常绿阔叶林的生产力的增加导致的位移混合万年青林的万年青针叶林。草原扩大，主要是以林地和灌木丛为代价，即使在凉爽和不那么干燥的气候情景下，木本植物产量的增加被野火的增加所抵消。在较冷和较少干燥的情况下，净初级生产力的增加导致加州到世纪末的模拟碳汇约为321太克。在较暖和较干的两种情景下，净初级生产力的下降导致净碳损失约为76至129太克。加州的年燃烧总面积在所有三种情景下都有所增加，到世纪末比历史正常水平高出9-15%。到世纪末，在生产力更高、温度更低、干燥程度更低的情况下，每年的生物质燃烧消耗量比历史标准高出约18%。在更温暖和更干燥的情景下，模拟的生物质消耗最初更大，但到世纪末达到或低于历史标准。
The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed Evergreen Forest. Grassland expanded, largely at the expense of Woodland and Shrubland, even under the cooler and less dry climate scenario where increased woody plant production was offset by increased wildfire. Increases in net primary productivity under the cooler and less dry scenario contributed to a simulated carbon sink of about 321 teragrams for California by the end of the century. Declines in net primary productivity under the two warmer and drier scenarios contributed to a net loss of carbon ranging from about 76 to 129 teragrams. Total annual area burned in California increased under all three scenarios, ranging from 9-15% above the historical norm by the end of the century. Annual biomass consumption by fire by the end of the century was about 18% greater than the historical norm under the more productive cooler and less dry scenario. Under the warmer and drier scenarios, simulated biomass consumption was initially greater, but then at, or below, the historical norm by the end of the century.