Impact of El Nin tilde o on the dynamics of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a municipality in the western Amazon
Impact of El Nin tilde o on the dynamics of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a municipality in the western Amazon
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DOI：
10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106032
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发表时间：
2021-07-24
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
de Oliveira Guerra, Jorge Augusto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
da Silva, Arineia Soares;Andreoli, Rita Valeria;de Oliveira Guerra, Jorge Augusto
病媒传播的疾病是热带地区一些主要的公共卫生问题，它们与气候异常的关系是众所周知的。本研究旨在评估巴西亚马逊河流域马瑙斯市美国皮肤利什曼病病例的趋势及其与极端气候（ENSO）的关系。该研究使用了一系列二手数据，这些数据来自1990年至2017年期间在马瑙斯市发生的几例美国皮肤利什曼病病例的通报，这些数据是通过类似于o de Agravos de Notificaca的系统获得的。这个城市的降水数据来源于国家气象研究所（INMET）和国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的网站。采用相干性和小波相位分析测量皮肤利什曼病病例的发生与类似于厄尔尼诺的南方涛动（ENSO）的关系程度。结果表明，在类似拉尼娜事件期间，美国皮肤利什曼病（ACL）病例数预计在11月降雨量增加后增加，1、2、3月病例数更为显著。研究发现，在马瑙斯市，ACL病例的动态直接受到影响降水、温度和湿度等环境变量的ENSO事件的影响。因此，气候变化改变了ACL的发病动态，导致该地区ACL病例的发病率随之增加或减少。
Vector-borne diseases are some of the leading public health problems in the tropics, and their association with climatic anomalies is well known. The current study aimed to evaluate the trend of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus, Amazonas-Brazil, and its relationship with climatic extremes (ENSO). The study was carried out using a series of secondary data from notifications on the occurrence of several American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus between 1990 and 2017 obtained through the Sistema de Informaca similar to o de Agravos de Notificaca similar to o. Data regarding temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation for this municipality were derived from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) websites. Coherence and wavelet phase analysis was conducted to measure the degree of relationship of the occurrence of the cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis and the El Nin similar to o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that during La Nin similar to a events, an increase in American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) cases is anticipated after the increase in rainfall from November, resulting in a more significant number of cases in January, February, and March. It was observed that in the municipality of Manaus, the dynamics of ACL cases are directly influenced by ENSO events that affect environmental variables such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity. Therefore, climatic variations consequently change the ACL incidence dynamics, leading to subsequent increases or decreases in the incidence of ACL cases in the area.