Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change
Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-018-3349-1
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发表时间：
2018-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Fu, Guangtao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu, Haixing;Wang, Yuntao;Fu, Guangtao
由于未来气候条件的不确定性，制定适应方案对于长期工程决策来说是一项挑战;对于城市洪水风险管理来说尤其如此。本研究发展了一种真实的选择方法来评估气候变化下城市地表水洪水风险管理的适应选择。以英国伦敦滑铁卢地区为例，介绍了三种可持续排水系统（SuDS）地表水洪水管理措施，即：评价了绿色屋顶、生物保持和渗透性路面。一个三叉树模型是用来代表未来的地平线（2050年和2080年）的降雨强度的变化与英国气候预测2009年的气候变化数据。采用二维元胞自动机模型CADDIES模拟地表水驱替。案例研究的结果表明，真实的期权方法比固定适应方法更具成本效益。真实的选项适应的好处被发现是更高的成本不断增加的SuDS措施相比，固定的适应。这项研究提供了新的证据的好处，真实的选项分析在城市地表水洪水风险管理与气候变化的不确定性。
Developing an adaptation option is challenging for long-term engineering decisions due to uncertain future climatic conditions; this is especially true for urban flood risk management. This study develops a real options approach to assess adaptation options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change. This approach is demonstrated using a case study of Waterloo in London, UK, in which three Sustainable Drainage System (SuDS) measures for surface water flood management, i.e., green roof, bio-retention and permeable pavement, are assessed. A trinomial tree model is used to represent the change in rainfall intensity over future horizons (2050s and 2080s) with the climate change data from UK Climate Projections 2009. A two-dimensional Cellular Automata-based model CADDIES is used to simulate surface water flooding. The results from the case study indicate that the real options approach is more cost-effective than the fixed adaptation approach. The benefit of real options adaptations is found to be higher with an increasing cost of SuDS measures compared to fixed adaptation. This study provides new evidence on the benefits of real options analysis in urban surface water flood risk management given the uncertainty associated with climate change.