A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK
A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-22-611-2018
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发表时间：
2018-01-25
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Hall, Jim W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guillod, Benoit P.;Jones, Richard G.;Hall, Jim W.
干旱和强降水等极端水文气象现象会对社会和经济产生巨大影响。由于气候变化，与此类事件相关的风险可能会增加，因此适当评估相关影响和不确定性对于适当适应至关重要。然而，应用基于风险的方法往往需要大量的极端事件，而这些事件通常并不存在。在这里，我们提出了这样一个大的水文气象时间序列，最近的过去和未来的条件，为英国的基础上，天气@home 2，一个建模框架，由全球气候模型（GCM）驱动的观测或预测的海表温度（SST）和海冰，这是缩小到25公里以上的欧洲域的区域气候模型（RCM）。为以下每一种情况生成了100组时间序列：（一）历史基线（1900-2006年）;（二）五种近期情景（2020-2049年）;（三）五种远期情景（2070-2099年）。每个未来时间片的五种情景都遵循代表性浓度路径8.5（RCP8.5），并从CMIP 5（耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段）模式中采样海表温度和海冰变化范围。历史基线的验证突出了温度和潜在蒸发的良好表现，但在平均降水量，这是使用线性方法校正的实质性的季节性偏差。对于长积累期（> 3个月）的极端低降水和短持续期的高降水（1-30天），时间序列通常很好地代表了过去的统计数据。未来预测显示，冬季降水量略有增加，但夏季平均降水量大幅减少，导致整体干燥，与最近的英国气候预测（UKCP 09）一致，但幅度大于后者。在大多数区域，干旱和高降水事件的频率和强度预计都将增加，这突出表明需要采取适当的适应措施。总体而言，所提出的数据集是一个有用的工具，用于评估与干旱相关的风险，更一般地与水文气象极端在英国。
Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is down-scaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period (> 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.