The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity
The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-17-0667.1
复制
发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
N. Lewis;J. Curry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Lewis;J. Curry
平衡气候敏感性（ECS）和瞬态气候响应（TCR）的能源预算估计是根据IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）中提供的强迫的最佳估计和不确定性范围得出的。纳入了最近对温室气体强迫以及 1990 年后臭氧和气溶胶强迫估计的修订，并将强迫数据从 2011 年延长至 2016 年。反映最近反对强气溶胶强迫的证据，其 AR5 不确定性下限略有增加。使用 1869–82 年基期和 2007–16 年最后期（这两个基期与火山活动和内部变率的影响非常匹配），得出 ECS 为 1.50 K（5%–95% 范围：1.05–2.45 K）和 TCR 为 1.20 K（5%–95% 范围：0.9–1.7 K）的中位数。这些估计值的上限都比之前使用截至 2011 年 AR5 数据的研究得出的上限要低得多。使用填充的全球完整温度数据给出的估计值略高：ECS 的中位数为 1.66 K（5%–95% 范围：1.15–2.7 K），TCR 的中位数为 1.33 K（5%–95% 范围：1.0–1.9 K）。这些 ECS 估计反映了历史时期的气候反馈，假设不随时间变化。考虑到可能随时间变化的气候反馈，使用填充温度数据将 ECS 估计值中位数增加到 1.76 K（5%–95% 范围：1.2–3.1 K）。对非单位强迫效力、温度估计问题和海面温度变化模式的变异性可能产生的偏差进行了检查，发现在使用全球完整的温度数据时，这些偏差很小。这些结果意味着大多数 CMIP5 气候模型得出的高 ECS 和 TCR 值与历史时期观测到的变暖不一致。
Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Recent revisions to greenhouse gas forcing and post-1990 ozone and aerosol forcing estimates are incorporated and the forcing data extended from 2011 to 2016. Reflecting recent evidence against strong aerosol forcing, its AR5 uncertainty lower bound is increased slightly. Using an 1869–82 base period and a 2007–16 final period, which are well matched for volcanic activity and influence from internal variability, medians are derived for ECS of 1.50 K (5%–95% range: 1.05–2.45 K) and for TCR of 1.20 K (5%–95% range: 0.9–1.7 K). These estimates both have much lower upper bounds than those from a predecessor study using AR5 data ending in 2011. Using infilled, globally complete temperature data give slightly higher estimates: a median of 1.66 K for ECS (5%–95% range: 1.15–2.7 K) and 1.33 K for TCR (5%–95% range: 1.0–1.9 K). These ECS estimates reflect climate feedbacks over the historical period, assumed to be time invariant. Allowing for possible time-varying climate feedbacks increases the median ECS estimate to 1.76 K (5%–95% range: 1.2–3.1 K), using infilled temperature data. Possible biases from non–unit forcing efficacy, temperature estimation issues, and variability in sea surface temperature change patterns are examined and found to be minor when using globally complete temperature data. These results imply that high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period.