Determinants of measles persistence in Beijing, China: A modelling study.
Determinants of measles persistence in Beijing, China: A modelling study.
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268823001322
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发表时间：
2023-08-22
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Yang, Wan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Jianjiu;Zhang, Wenyi;Wang, Yong;Yang, Wan
在中国首都北京，常规麻疹大规模疫苗接种已实施数十年，覆盖率很高；自2000年代以来，对进城务工人员实施了补种疫苗接种计划。然而，北京麻疹疫情依然持续。在这里，我们使用流行病模型结合颗粒过滤器探讨了北京麻疹持续传播的影响因素。模型输入包括出生、死亡、迁移和疫苗接种的数据。我们提出了一系列假设，涵盖移民涌入、母亲免疫力过早减弱以及婴儿之间混合增加的影响；我们比较了基于模型拟合的假设的合理性，该模型符合 2005 年 1 月至 2014 年 12 月按年龄分组的每周麻疹发病率数据，以及 2015 年至 2019 年期间的不拟合预测。我们最好的模型显示与数据非常吻合，并且不合适的预测总体上反映了 2015 年至 2019 年麻疹发病的趋势。我们发现，易感性相当高的流动人口的大量涌入可能导致了北京麻疹的持续传播。我们的研究结果表明，加强针对流动人口的疫苗接种计划可能有助于消除北京的麻疹传播。
In Beijing, the capital of China, routine measles mass vaccination has been in place for decades with high coverage; and since the 2000s, catch-up vaccination programmes have been implemented for migrant workers coming to the city. However, measles epidemics in Beijing persisted. Here, we explored the contributing factors of persistent measles transmission in Beijing using an epidemic model in conjunction with a particle filter. Model inputs included data on birth, death, migration, and vaccination. We formulated a series of hypotheses covering the impact of migrant influx, early waning of maternal immunity, and increased mixing among infants; we compared the plausibility of the hypotheses based on model fit to age-grouped, weekly measles incidence data from January 2005 to December 2014, and out-of-fit prediction during 2015–2019. Our best models showed close agreement with the data, and the out-of-fit prediction generally captured the trend of measles incidence from 2015 to 2019. We found that large influx of migrants with considerably higher susceptibility likely contributed to the persistent measles transmission in Beijing. Our findings suggest that stronger catch-up vaccination programmes for migrants may help eliminate measles transmission in Beijing.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Gao J;Chen E;Wang Z;Shen J;He H;Ma H;Zeng G;Zhu BP
通讯作者：
Zhu BP