Global warming under old an new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates
Global warming under old an new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1385
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发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Knutti, Reto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rogelj, Joeri;Meinshausen, Malte;Knutti, Reto
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告（1）（AR4）的气候预测基于排放情景特别报告（2）（SRES）的情景和耦合模型比对项目（3）（CMIP3）第三阶段的模拟。从那时起，设计了一组新的四种情景（代表性浓度路径或 RCP）(4)。 IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）中的气候预测将基于耦合模型比对项目（5）（CMIP5）第五阶段，该项目纳入了最新版本的气候模型并重点关注RCP。这意味着到 AR5，模型和场景都将发生变化，使得与早期文献的比较具有挑战性。为了便于进行比较，我们在一个一致的框架中提供了 SRES 情景和 RCP 的概率气候预测。这些估计基于一个模型设置，该模型在概率上考虑了对气候敏感性不确定性的总体共识理解，综合了对气候系统和碳循环行为的理解，同时受到观测到的历史变暖的限制。
Climate projections for the fourth assessment report(1) (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(2) (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(3) (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed(4). Climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) will be based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(5) (CMIP5), which incorporates the latest versions of climate models and focuses on RCPs. This implies that by AR5 both models and scenarios will have changed, making a comparison with earlier literature challenging. To facilitate this comparison, we provide probabilistic climate projections of both SRES scenarios and RCPs in a single consistent framework. These estimates are based on a model set-up that probabilistically takes into account the overall consensus understanding of climate sensitivity uncertainty, synthesizes the understanding of climate system and carbon-cycle behaviour, and is at the same time constrained by the observed historical warming.