Space weather impacts on satellites and forecasting the Earth's electron radiation belts with SPACECAST
Space weather impacts on satellites and forecasting the Earth's electron radiation belts with SPACECAST
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DOI：
10.1002/swe.20023
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Pitchford, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horne, R. B.;Glauert, S. A.;Pitchford, D.
在地球辐射带和太阳高能粒子（SEP）事件期间，卫星会被高能带电粒子破坏。在这里，我们回顾了对卫星服务的日益依赖，空间天气的新脆弱性，以及以前导致服务损失的事件。我们描述了一个新的欧洲系统，可以预测未来3小时的辐射带，该系统有三个独特之处：首先，它使用基于物理学的模型，其中包括波粒相互作用;第二，它提供了对整个外辐射带的预测，包括地球静止轨道、中等轨道和槽区轨道;第三，这是一项真正的国际努力，包括欧洲、美国和日本。在2012年3月89日的风暴和SEP事件中，模型能够预测> 800 keV的电子通量，最初在GOES数据的2倍之内，后来在10倍之内。虽然ACE和GOES的数据在SEP事件期间变得不可靠，但该系统继续使用地面磁力计进行预测，没有中断。24 h电子注量> 2 MeV的预测可为卫星运营商提供风险指标。我们表明，包括波粒相互作用L* > 6.5，大大提高了与GOES数据的一致性，磁层顶的快速向内运动L* < 8与地球静止轨道上相对论电子的快速损失有关。因此，我们建议，更好的波粒模型和更好的太阳风和磁层顶和辐射带的模型之间的耦合，应该导致更好的预测。
Satellites can be damaged by high energy charged particles in the Earth's radiation belts and during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Here we review the growing reliance on satellite services, new vulnerabilities to space weather, and previous events that have led to loss of service. We describe a new European system to forecast the radiation belts up to 3h ahead, which has three unique features: first, it uses physics-based models, which include wave-particle interactions; second, it provides a forecast for the whole outer radiation belt including geostationary, medium, and slot region orbits; third, it is a truly international effort including Europe, United States, and Japan. During the 89 March 2012 storm and SEP event, the models were able to forecast the >800keV electron flux to within a factor of 2 initially, and later to within a factor of 10 of the GOES data. Although ACE and GOES data became unreliable during the SEP event, the system continued forecasting without interruption using ground-based magnetometers. A forecast of the 24h electron fluence >2MeV is used to provide a risk index for satellite operators. We show that including wave-particle interactions for L* > 6.5 improves the agreement with GOES data substantially and that a fast inward motion of the magnetopause to L* < 8 is related to rapid loss of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit. Thus, we suggest that better wave-particle models and better coupling between the solar wind and the models of the magnetopause and radiation belts should lead to better forecasting.