Accounting for Unknown Unknowns in Managing Multi-hazard Risks
Accounting for Unknown Unknowns in Managing Multi-hazard Risks
复制标题
管理多灾种风险时考虑未知因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Nadim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Gilbert;M. Habibi;F. Nadim
管理多重灾害风险的一个重大挑战是考虑超出我们经验范围的事件的可能性。经典的统计方法的价值有限，因为没有数据可以分析。判断或主观评估的价值也是有限的，因为它们是在我们的经验范围内得出的。本章提出了一个新的框架，决策熵理论，以评估概率和管理风险的可能性，面对有限的信息。该理论假设了一个评估概率的起点，反映了在做出风险管理决策时没有信息。从这个非信息性的起点出发，所有可用的信息（如果有的话）都可以通过贝叶斯定理合并。从实践的角度来看，这一理论强调了考虑自然灾害的可能性如何影响管理风险的首选替代方案的重要性。它强调科学和工程在促进对自然灾害的理解和管理其风险方面的作用。它最终强调了在信息有限的情况下制定适应性方法来管理多重灾害风险的重要性。
A significant challenge in managing multi-hazard risks is accounting for the possibility of events beyond our range of experience. Classical statistical approaches are of limited value because there are no data to analyze. Judgment or subjective assessments are also of limited value because they are derived from within our range of experience. This chapter proposes a new framework, Decision Entropy Theory, to assess probabilities and manage risks for possibilities in the face of limited information. The theory postulates a starting point for assessing probabilities that reflect having no information in making a risk management decision. From this non-informative starting point, all available information (if any) can be incorporated through Bayes’ theorem. From a practical perspective, this theory highlights the importance of considering how possibilities for natural hazards could impact the preferred alternatives for managing risks. It emphasizes the role for science and engineering to advance understanding about natural hazards and managing their risk. It ultimately underscores the importance of developing adaptable approaches to manage multi-hazard risks in the face of limited information.