Characterization of the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis outbreaks in Mexico in 2008
Characterization of the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis outbreaks in Mexico in 2008
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DOI：
10.2460/ajvr.72.2.233
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Rodriguez, Luis L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arroyo, Montserrat;Perez, Andres M.;Rodriguez, Luis L.
目的-描述2008年墨西哥报告的水泡性口炎（VS）疫情的时空分布和繁殖率。1月1日至12月31日正式报告并确认爆发VS的墨西哥动物-牛群，2008.程序-空间的泊松模型-2008年，时间扫描统计被用来确定墨西哥VS风险最高的时期和地理位置。的牛群繁殖率（Rh）的流行计算通过使用的倍增时间的方法。结果-1个重要的空间-时间集群的VS检测到在状态的米霍坎从2008年9月4日至12月10日。在塔巴斯科和恰帕斯流行区，VS爆发的时间范围和Rh的下降值和模式不同，与包括在时空集群中的区域的结果进行比较。结论和临床相关性-2008年墨西哥报告的大量VS暴发与该疾病从墨西哥南部的流行区传播到零星受这种疾病结果表明，在墨西哥的流行区的监测系统，旨在早期发现的Rh值和时空聚集的疾病的变化，可以帮助预测未来VS爆发的发生起源于该流行区。这些信息将有助于防止VS传播到墨西哥和邻国的地区，这些地区只是偶尔受到这种疾病的影响。(Am J Vet Res 2011;72：233-238）
Objective-To characterize the temporal and spatial distribution and reproductive ratio of vesicular stomatitis (VS) outbreaks reported in Mexico in 2008.Animals-Bovine herds in Mexico in which VS outbreaks were officially reported and confirmed from January 1 through December 31, 2008.Procedures-The Poisson model of the space-time scan statistic was used to identify periods and geographical locations at highest risk for VS in Mexico in 2008. The herd reproductive ratio (Rh) of the epidemic was computed by use of the doubling-time method.Results-1 significant space-time cluster of VS was detected in the state of Michoacan from September 4 through December 10, 2008. The temporal extent of the VS outbreaks and the value and pattern of decrease of the Rh were different in the endemic zone of Tabasco and Chiapas, compared with findings in the region included in the space-time cluster.Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-The large number of VS outbreaks reported in Mexico in 2008 was associated with the spread of the disease from the endemic zone in southern Mexico to areas sporadically affected by the disease. Results suggested that implementation of a surveillance system in the endemic zone of Mexico aimed at early detection of changes in the value of Rh and space-time clustering of the disease could help predict occurrence of future VS outbreaks originating from this endemic zone. This information will help prevent VS spread into regions of Mexico and neighboring countries that are only sporadically affected by the disease. (Am J Vet Res 2011;72:233-238)