The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere
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DOI：
10.1029/2019jd030920
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发表时间：
2020-01-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Taguchi, Masakazu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.;Butler, Amy H.;Taguchi, Masakazu
平流层已被确定为一系列亚季节到季节（S2S）时间尺度过程的重要可预测性来源。然而，关于平流层中S2S可预测性的知识仍然有限。本研究评估了在S2S数据库的业务预报系统的预报中，温带平流层的可预测性在多大程度上存在。研究发现，与对流层相比，平流层具有更大的可预测性。具有较高平流层预报能力的预报系统在对流层也往往表现出较高的预报能力。分析还包括对平流层事件的可预测性的评估，包括北半球的初冬和仲冬平流层突然变暖事件、强涡旋事件和极端热通量事件以及两个半球的最终变暖事件。与平流层突然变暖事件相比，强涡旋事件和最终变暖事件表现出更高的可预测性。一般来说，技能被限制在1 - 2周的确定范围内。总体而言，高顶预测系统的平流层预测能力高于低顶预测系统，这表明平流层表征在S2S预测模式中的重要作用。
The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models.