Welfare Dynamics in Pakistan and Ethiopia – Does the Estimation Method Matter?
Welfare Dynamics in Pakistan and Ethiopia – Does the Estimation Method Matter?
复制标题
巴基斯坦和埃塞俄比亚的福利动态——估算方法重要吗？
DOI：
10.1080/00220388.2013.785522
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Naschold
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Naschold
确定家庭层面的福利动态和相关的动态贫困陷阱阈值可以对减贫政策的目标产生重要影响。现有的少量经验性微观经济学文献发现了支持和反对贫困陷阱的证据。本文使用巴基斯坦农村和埃塞俄比亚的家庭面板数据，研究这些不同的结果是否可能是由估计方法的差异驱动的，或者它们是否反映了不同环境的实际差异。它适用于现有文献中的估计方法相同的两个数据集，并提出了一种新的半参数面板数据估计，结合了以前的全参数和非参数方法的优点。结果表明，没有任何动态贫困陷阱阈值的影响，使用不同的估计方法是次要的，有一个小的影响，估计长期水平的家庭福祉，但不确定多个动态福利平衡和相关的动态贫困阈值。巴基斯坦和埃塞俄比亚农村的家庭似乎陷入了静态的结构性贫困陷阱，面临着预期的长期福祉水平，这使他们直接陷入贫困。
Identifying household-level welfare dynamics and associated dynamic poverty trap thresholds can have important implications for the targeting of poverty reduction policies. The small existing empirical microeconomic literature has found evidence both for and against poverty traps. Using household panel data from rural Pakistan and Ethiopia, this article examines whether these different results are likely driven by differences in estimation methods or whether they reflect actual differences across settings. It applies the estimation methods from the existing literature to the same two datasets and also proposes a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the previous fully parametric and nonparametric approaches. The results suggest that absent any dynamic poverty trap thresholds the effect of using different estimation methods is secondary, having a small influence on the estimated long-term level of household well-being but not the identification of multiple dynamic welfare equilibria and associated dynamic poverty thresholds. Households in rural Pakistan and Ethiopia seem to be stuck in a static, structural-type poverty trap facing an expected level of long-term well-being that places them squarely in poverty.