Worldwide increase in incidence of Type I diabetes -: the analysis of the data on published incidence trends
Worldwide increase in incidence of Type I diabetes -: the analysis of the data on published incidence trends
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DOI：
10.1007/s001250051309
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发表时间：
1999-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Tuomilehto, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Onkamo, P;Väänänen, S;Tuomilehto, J
目的/假设。关于I型（胰岛素依赖型）糖尿病发病率的几份报告表明，发病率正在增加。本研究的目的是找出发病率是否在全球范围内增加或仅限于选定的人群，并估计发病率变化的幅度。1960年至1996年期间，在27个国家进行了37项研究。为了满足入选标准，研究期为8-32年。以年龄标准化发病率的对数为因变量，历年为自变量，通过线性回归拟合时间趋势。然后，回归系数（x 100%）近似为每年发病率的平均相对增长（以百分比表示）。来自所有37个人群的汇总数据的结果显示，发病率总体每年增加3.0%（95% CI 2.6; 3.3，p = 0.0001）。在37个人群中，有24个人群的发病率在统计学上显著增加，其中包括所有高发病率（每年每10万人中有14.6人）人群。然而，在发病率较低的人群中，相对增加幅度更大。发病率的对数与发病率的增加之间的相关性为r =-0.56，p = 0.0004。I型糖尿病的发病率在世界范围内的低发病率和高发病率人群中均在增加。到2010年，芬兰的发病率将为每年每100 000人中有50人，在许多其他人口中，发病率也将超过每年每100 000人中有30人。
Aims/hypothesis. Several reports on the incidence of Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus have suggested that the incidence is increasing. The aim of this study was to find out whether the incidence is increasing globally or restricted to a selected populations only and to estimate the magnitude of the change in incidence.Methods. During 1960 to 1996 37 studies in 27 countries were carried out. To fulfil the inclusion criteria the study periods ranged from 8-32 years. The temporal trend was fitted by linear regression, with the logarithm of the age-standardized incidence as the dependent variable and the calendar year as the independent variable. Then, the regression coefficient (x 100%) is approximately the average relative increase in incidence per year (as percentage).Results. Results from the pooled data from all 37 populations showed that the overall increase in incidence was 3.0% per year (95% CI 2.6; 3.3, p = 0.0001). The statistically significant increase was found in 24 of 37 populations including all high incidence (>14.6 per 100 000 a year) populations. The relative increase was, however, steeper in the populations with a lower incidence. The correlation between logarithm of the incidence and the increase in incidence was r = -0.56, p = 0.0004.Conclusion/interpretation. The incidence of Type I diabetes is increasing worldwide both in low and high incidence populations. By the year 2010 the incidence will be 50 per 100 000 a year in Finland and also in many other populations it will exceed 30 per 100 000 a year.