Process-Oriented Evaluation of Climate and Weather Forecasting Models
Process-Oriented Evaluation of Climate and Weather Forecasting Models
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-18-0042.1
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Zhao, Ming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Maloney, Eric D.;Gettelman, Andrew;Zhao, Ming
现实的气候和天气预测模型是必要的，以产生对未来几十年气候预测的信心，并预测几天到几个季节。这些模型必须在物理上合理，并验证多种天气和气候过程。加速模型改进的一个关键机会是将面向过程的诊断（POD）更多地纳入可在模型开发过程中应用的标准包中，允许诊断的应用在多个模型版本中重复，并用作模型改进的基准。POD表征与模拟观察到的现象的能力相关的特定物理过程或紧急行为。本文介绍了NOAA气候计划办公室（CPO）建模、分析、预测和预测（MAPP）计划下的模型诊断工作组（MDTF）的活动成果，以促进POD的发展及其在气候和天气预测模型中的应用。MDTF和建模中心的观点，需要扩大面向过程的诊断模型。MDTF开发的多个POD进行了总结，并在其他相关的社群活动的背景下，MDTF开发的开源软件框架，以帮助应用POD中心的模型开发。最后，本文讨论了多捐助方信托基金的努力和社区面向过程的诊断的前进道路。
Realistic climate and weather prediction models are necessary to produce confidence in projections of future climate over many decades and predictions for days to seasons. These models must be physically justified and validated for multiple weather and climate processes. A key opportunity to accelerate model improvement is greater incorporation of process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) into standard packages that can be applied during the model development process, allowing the application of diagnostics to be repeatable across multiple model versions and used as a benchmark for model improvement. A POD characterizes a specific physical process or emergent behavior that is related to the ability to simulate an observed phenomenon. This paper describes the outcomes of activities by the Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF) under the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program to promote development of PODs and their application to climate and weather prediction models. MDTF and modeling center perspectives on the need for expanded process-oriented diagnosis of models are presented. Multiple PODs developed by the MDTF are summarized, and an open-source software framework developed by the MDTF to aid application of PODs to centers' model development is presented in the context of other relevant community activities. The paper closes by discussing paths forward for the MDTF effort and for community process-oriented diagnosis.