On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation
On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.6.6.275
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发表时间：
1920-01-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Reed, LJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pearl, R;Reed, LJ
统计：PEARL和REED在缅因州实验站生物实验室研究出了蛋的大小随产卵次数的变化，产奶量随年龄的变化等多种现象。Donaldson和Hatai7已经在白鼠和青蛙身上证明了这种方程对身体生长的适用性。尽管根据先验的理由，除非作相当粗略的类比，否则不能把群体规模的增加看作与有机体规模的增长是同一件事，但它本质上是一种增长现象。因此，这种类型的曲线比简单的三阶抛物线更能充分地表示人口增长，这似乎是完全合理的。实际事件证明了这一假设是正确的，就像下面将要展示的那样。表1显示了人口普查局在1790年至1910年期间统计的人口。确切的日期载于现任人口普查处处长的私人信函中。这些数字体现了人口普查局自最初的人口普查以来所做的一些调整和更正。
STATISTICS: PEARL AND REED worked out in the Biological Laboratory of the Maine Experiment Station, such diverse phenomena as change of size of egg with successive layings, change of milk production with age, etc. Donaldson and Hatai7 have demonstrated the applicability of this type of equation to bodily growth in the white rat and frog.While the increase in size of a population cannot on a priori groundsbe regarded, except by rather loose analogy, as the same thing as the growth of an organism in size, nevertheless it isessentially a growth phe-nomenon. It, therefore, seems entirely reasonable that this type of curve should give a more adequate representation of population increase than a simple third-order parabola. The actual event justifies this assumption, as will presently appear. Table 1 shows thecounted population as determined by the Census Bureau on the dates mentioned from 1790 to 1910. The exact dates were furnished in a personal communication from the present Director of the Census. These figures embody some adjustments and corrections made by the Census Bureau since the original censuses were made.