Effect of dynamically varying zone-based hedging policies on the operational performance of surface water reservoirs during climate change
Effect of dynamically varying zone-based hedging policies on the operational performance of surface water reservoirs during climate change
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DOI：
10.1144/sp488.1
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发表时间：
2018-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Adeloye;B. Soundharajan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Adeloye;B. Soundharajan
摘要在地表水水库中，套期保值被公认为是一种有用的操作实践，可以暂时重新分配供水，从而避免大规模的严重缺水。当基于可用水存储区域时，套期保值传统上涉及静态配给（即供需）比率。然而，考虑到水库流入的通常季节性，也有可能对冲可能是动态的，季节性变化的配给比率。本研究探讨了静态和动态对冲政策对印度Pong水库在气候变化期间的表现的影响。结果表明，水库的脆弱性是不可接受的高（≥60%），没有对冲，这种脆弱性进一步恶化的集水区变得干燥，由于预计的气候变化。基于时间和体积的可靠性是可以接受的。静态对冲的引入将脆弱性大幅降低至<25%，尽管在正常运行条件下供水的对冲减少仅为17%。对动态套期保值的进一步分析表明，脆弱性只略有改善。本研究的意义在于证明了套期保值在抵消气候变化引起的水资源短缺的影响方面的有效性，以及静态套期保值可以匹配更复杂的动态套期保值政策。
Abstract Hedging is universally recognized as a useful operational practice in surface water reservoirs to temporally redistribute water supplies and thereby avoid large, crippling water shortages. When based on the zones of available water in storage, hedging has traditionally involved a static rationing (i.e. supply to demand) ratio. However, given the usual seasonality of reservoir inflows, it is also possible that hedging could be dynamic with seasonally varying rationing ratios. This study examined the effect of static and dynamic hedging policies on the performance of the Pong reservoir in India during a period of climate change. The results show that the reservoir vulnerability was unacceptably high (≥60%) without hedging and that this vulnerability further deteriorated as the catchment became drier due to projected climate change. The time- and volume-based reliabilities were acceptable. The introduction of static hedging drastically reduced the vulnerability to <25%, although the hedging reduction in the water supplied during normal operational conditions was only 17%. Further analyses with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in vulnerability. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging in offsetting the impact of water shortages caused by climate change and the fact that static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.