Independence, precursors and earthquake hazard
Independence, precursors and earthquake hazard
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独立、前兆和地震危险
DOI：
10.1016/0040-1951(89)90194-7
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发表时间：
1989
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
D. Rhoades
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Rhoades
人们发现，只有在不同类型前体之间相互独立的假设下，将几种不同类型前体的危害结合起来的问题才容易处理。结果表明，通常的条件独立假设对于连续时间危险估计是不现实的。提出了另一种方法，其中主要假设是与特定类型前兆无关的地震比例独立于其他类型前兆的信息，并且特定类型的误报以独立于地震和其他警报的恒定速率发生。该方法适用于由位置和震级的限制（无论多么宽）定义的域内的危险估计，以及在特定类型的给定警报之后地震发生时间的一般概率分布。当相关前兆的时间尺度差异很大时，问题就变得简单了。
The problem of combining the hazard from precursors of several different types has been found to be tractable only when assumptions of independence between precursors of different types are made. It is shown that the usual conditional independence assumptions are not realistic for continuous-time hazard estimation. An alternative approach is presented in which the main assumptions are that the proportion of earthquakes unrelated to precursors of a particular type is independent of information on precursors of other types, and that false alarms of a particular type occur at a constant rate independently of earthquakes and other alarms. The method applies to hazard estimation within a domain defined by limits (however wide) of location and magnitude and to a general probability distribution for the time of occurrence of an earthquake following a given alarm of a particular type. The problem is simplified when the precursors concerned have widely differing time-scales.