Poverty alleviation strategies in eastern China lead to critical ecological dynamics.
Poverty alleviation strategies in eastern China lead to critical ecological dynamics.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.096
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发表时间：
2015-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ke Zhang;J. Dearing;T. Dawson;Xuhui Dong;Xiangdong Yang;Weiguo Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ke Zhang;J. Dearing;T. Dawson;Xuhui Dong;Xiangdong Yang;Weiguo Zhang
许多地区已经实现了与农业集约化有关的减贫，但对其对生态动态的影响往往了解有限。一个核心需要是观察监管和支持服务的长期变化，以此作为评估可持续农业或生态崩溃可能性的基础。我们展示了对55个社会、经济和生态条件的时间序列的分析如何为自20世纪50年代以来的现代长江下游地区提供了一个进化的视角，并对现代生态系统服务的可持续性提供了强有力的见解。在过去60多年里，该区域内提供生态系统服务的趋势不断增加，反映了经济增长和成功扶贫，但与此同时，主要是自1980年代以来，一系列监管生态系统服务的急剧损失。1985年后，社会和生态领域的联系日益紧密，这表明农村经济的驱动力更加一致。自1970年代以来，制度的转变和当地生态系统服务的高度变化表明，整个区域的复原力正在逐渐丧失。特别令人关切的是，水质服务已经在几个领域经历了关键的过渡。从整体上看，我们的结果表明，区域社会生态系统在20世纪70年代末经历了一个转折点，现在正处于一个过渡阶段，走向一个新的稳态。然而，经济增长和生态退化之间的长期关系没有显示出脱钩的迹象，这是扭转不可持续轨道的需要。
Poverty alleviation linked to agricultural intensification has been achieved in many regions but there is often only limited understanding of the impacts on ecological dynamics. A central need is to observe long term changes in regulating and supporting services as the basis for assessing the likelihood of sustainable agriculture or ecological collapse. We show how the analyses of 55 time-series of social, economic and ecological conditions can provide an evolutionary perspective for the modern Lower Yangtze River Basin region since the 1950s with powerful insights about the sustainability of modern ecosystem services. Increasing trends in provisioning ecosystem services within the region over the past 60 years reflect economic growth and successful poverty alleviation but are paralleled by steep losses in a range of regulating ecosystem services mainly since the 1980s. Increasing connectedness across the social and ecological domains after 1985 points to a greater uniformity in the drivers of the rural economy. Regime shifts and heightened levels of variability since the 1970s in local ecosystem services indicate progressive loss of resilience across the region. Of special concern are water quality services that have already passed critical transitions in several areas. Viewed collectively, our results suggest that the regional social–ecological system passed a tipping point in the late 1970s and is now in a transient phase heading towards a new steady state. However, the long-term relationship between economic growth and ecological degradation shows no sign of decoupling as demanded by the need to reverse an unsustainable trajectory.