Quantifying and documenting prior beliefs in clinical trials
Quantifying and documenting prior beliefs in clinical trials
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.694.abs
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发表时间：
2001-02-28
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Rhame, FS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chaloner, K;Rhame, FS
从知识渊博的临床医生那里收集和记录关于临床试验潜在结果的主观先验信念有很多优点。两个大型试验的预防性治疗在艾滋病毒阳性人群中被用作例子。这些试验招募了初级保健医生的患者，并比较了临床实践中使用的治疗方法。关于这些试验的意见来自58名执业艾滋病毒临床医生。它示出了如何记录的意见，可以用来增强监测过程中，事先的意见更新与临时数据，使用近似贝叶斯方法，使后的意见，将临时结果。监测委员会可以使用这些事后意见来预测临床医生对结果的反应。引出先前的信念对于记录不确定性或平衡的性质也是重要的。为知情同意过程和机构审查委员会（IRB）提供重要信息。版权所有（C）2001约翰威利父子有限公司
Collecting and documenting subjective prior beliefs from knowledgeable clinicians about the potential results of a clinical trial has many advantages. Two large trials of prophylactic treatments in an HIV-positive population are used as examples. The trials recruited patients of primary care physicians and compared treatments which were in use in clinical practice. Opinions about these trials were elicited from 58 practising HIV clinicians. It is shown how the documented opinions can be used to augment the monitoring process; the prior opinions are updated with interim data using approximate Bayesian methods to give posterior opinions incorporating interim results. These posterior opinions can be used by the monitoring board to anticipate the clinicians' reaction to the results. Eliciting prior beliefs is also ethically important for documenting the nature of the uncertainty or equipoise. Important information is provided for the informed consent process and Institutional Review Board (IRB). Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.