The NWRA Classification Infrastructure: Description and Extension to the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS)
The NWRA Classification Infrastructure: Description and Extension to the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS)
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DOI：
10.1051/swsc/2018004
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发表时间：
2018-02
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Leka;G. Barnes;E. Wagner
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文献类型：
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作者：
K. Leka;G. Barnes;E. Wagner
西北研究协会开发了一种基于判别分析的分类基础设施，用于检查两个已知种群样本之间的统计差异。为了研究太阳耀斑非活跃区和耀斑临近活跃区之间的物理差异，我们在此详细描述了基础设施的一些细节，包括：大数据集的参数化、多参数分析中处理“null”和“bad”数据的方案、非参数多维判别分析的应用、贝叶斯定理在概率分类中的推广以及用于评估分类器成功的方法。该分类器基础结构适用于太阳物理中广泛的科学问题。我们展示了它在区分耀斑临近和耀斑安静太阳活动区的问题上的应用，更新了基于不同数据和更小样本量的原始出版物的结果。最后，作为空间天气预报中“从研究到操作”的演示，我们介绍了判别分析耀斑预测系统（DAFFS），这是一种基于研究导向基础设施开发的近实时运行的太阳耀斑预测工具。
A classification infrastructure built upon Discriminant Analysis has been developed at NorthWest Research Associates for examining the statistical differences between samples of two known populations. Originating to examine the physical differences between flare-quiet and flare-imminent solar active regions, we describe herein some details of the infrastructure including: parametrization of large datasets, schemes for handling "null" and "bad" data in multi-parameter analysis, application of non-parametric multi-dimensional Discriminant Analysis, an extension through Bayes' theorem to probabilistic classification, and methods invoked for evaluating classifier success. The classifier infrastructure is applicable to a wide range of scientific questions in solar physics. We demonstrate its application to the question of distinguishing flare-imminent from flare-quiet solar active regions, updating results from the original publications that were based on different data and much smaller sample sizes. Finally, as a demonstration of "Research to Operations" efforts in the space-weather forecasting context, we present the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS), a near-real-time operationally-running solar flare forecasting tool that was developed from the research-directed infrastructure.