Vehicle Scrappage and Gasoline Policy
Vehicle Scrappage and Gasoline Policy
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车辆报废和汽油政策
DOI：
10.1257/aer.20130935
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Arthur A. van Benthem
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mark R. Jacobsen;Arthur A. van Benthem
我们估计了报废决策对二手车价值变化的敏感性——“报废弹性”——并展示了它如何在旨在减少汽油使用的政策下影响二手车车队。在效率标准下，随着二手车寿命的延长，较大的废料弹性往往会产生排放泄漏，这一过程被称为格林斯佩克特效应。为了探索这种泄漏的程度，我们收集了美国二手车登记和价格的新数据集，我们通过汽油成本的差异效应将其与时间联系起来：汽油价格上涨或下降1美元会使燃油效率高的车辆与燃油效率低的车辆的报废数量减少18%。这些关系使我们能够提供我们认为是废料弹性本身的第一个估计，我们发现它大约是-0.7。当应用于燃油经济性标准模型时，我们估计的弹性表明，13-23%的预期燃油节约将通过二手车市场流失。这大大降低了标准的成本效益，与经常被引用的里程“反弹”效应的重要性相媲美或超过。
We estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values - the "scrap elasticity" - and show how it influences used car fleets under policies aimed at reducing gasoline use. Large scrap elasticities will tend to produce emissions leakage under efficiency standards as the longevity of used vehicles is increased, a process known as the Gruenspecht effect. To explore the magnitude of this leakage we assemble a novel dataset of U.S. used vehicle registrations and prices, which we relate through time via differential effects in gasoline cost: A gasoline price increase or decrease of $1 alters the number of fuel-efficient vs. fuel-inefficient vehicles scrapped by 18%. These relationships allow us to provide what we believe are the first estimates of the scrap elasticity itself, which we find to be about -0.7. When applied in a model of fuel economy standards, the elasticities we estimate suggest that 13-23% of the expected fuel savings will leak away through the used vehicle market. This considerably reduces the cost-effectiveness of the standard, rivaling or exceeding the importance of the often-cited mileage "rebound" effect.