Criteria for projected discovery and exclusion sensitivities of counting experiments
Criteria for projected discovery and exclusion sensitivities of counting experiments
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DOI：
10.1140/epjc/s10052-020-08819-6
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发表时间：
2020-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Prudhvi N. Bhattiprolu;S. P. Martin;J. Wells
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文献类型：
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作者：
Prudhvi N. Bhattiprolu;S. P. Martin;J. Wells
粒子物理学和天体物理学/宇宙学实验的预测发现和排除能力通常使用预期p值的中位数或其相应的显著性来量化。我们认为，这一标准会导致有缺陷的结果，例如，如果实验需要更多的数据或减少其背景，可能会违反直觉地降低灵敏度。我们讨论了几种替代方案的优点，中位数预期的意义，无论是当背景是已知的，当它受到一些不确定性。我们主张标准使用本文详细介绍的“精确阿西莫夫意义”。
The projected discovery and exclusion capabilities of particle physics and astrophysics/cosmology experiments are often quantified using the median expected p-value or its corresponding significance. We argue that this criterion leads to flawed results, which for example can counterintuitively project lessened sensitivities if the experiment takes more data or reduces its background. We discuss the merits of several alternatives to the median expected significance, both when the background is known and when it is subject to some uncertainty. We advocate for standard use of the “exact Asimov significance”detailed in this paper.