Sensitivity analysis of launch activities in Low Earth Orbit
Sensitivity analysis of launch activities in Low Earth Orbit
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DOI：
10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.05.043
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发表时间：
2019-05
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
G. Somma;H. Lewis;C. Colombo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Somma;H. Lewis;C. Colombo
这项工作旨在研究近地轨道环境对新发射数量和分布变化的响应，并了解大型航天器星座的大小和任务后寿命的影响。本文采用空间碎片控制策略研究模型（MISSD）进行分析，该模型是一个多壳体、多物种源汇统计模型，能够模拟六种物体在2000公里高度内的注入、移除和相互作用。结果表明，在未来200年，随着发射活动的轻微增加，多个地区的轨道密度都有明显的增加。最近，许多私营公司表示有兴趣将大型卫星星座放置在1100-1300 公里的高度。然而，结果表明，每年在该地区发射6艘额外的航天器所增加的空间密度相当于今天最拥挤地区200年的投影量。结果还表明，通过高水平的任务后处理合规、可靠的脱轨机制和将任务后寿命缩短至5年，可以减轻由大型星座存在引起的轨道人口增加和碰撞风险。
This work aims to investigate the response of the low Earth orbit environment to the change in number and distribution of new launches and to understand the effects of the size and post-mission lifetime of a large constellation of spacecraft. The analysis presented in this paper were carried out using MISSD, Model for Investigating control Strategies for Space Debris, a multi-shell, and multi-species source-sink statistical model able to simulate the injection, removal and interaction of six type of objects up to an altitude of 2000 km. The results suggest that multiple regions experience a sensible increment in the orbital density when slightly increasing the launch activity for the next 200 years. Recently, many private companies expressed their interest in putting large constellations of satellites at 1100–1300 km altitude. However, results show that the launch of just six additional spacecraft per year in this region increased the spatial density by an amount equal to the projection over 200 years of today's most crowded region. Results also show that the increase in the orbital population and collision risk caused by the presence of large constellations could be mitigated using a high level of post-mission disposal compliance, reliable deorbit mechanisms and reducing thepost-mission lifetime to 5 years.