Interacting regional policies in containing a disease
Interacting regional policies in containing a disease
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2021520118
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发表时间：
2021-05-11
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Thau, Samuel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chandrasekhar, Arun G.;Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul;Thau, Samuel
区域隔离政策，即对感染源周围的一部分人群进行封锁，是控制疾病的重要手段。然而，不同辖区的政府——比如城市、郡县、州和国家——在跨境行动时协调极少。我们表明，区域隔离政策的有效性取决于以下几点：1）互动网络是否满足增长平衡条件；2）感染在检测方面延迟较短；3）政府对网络的必要部分有控制权和了解（行为无泄漏）。由于这些条件通常无法满足，特别是当互动跨越边界时，我们表明，如果政府具有前瞻性和主动性，就有可能实现大幅改善：根据邻区的感染率触发隔离，在某些情况下甚至在内部检测到感染之前就采取行动。我们还表明，即使只有少数几个宽松的政府——那些在隔离之前等待内部出现非零感染率的政府——也会给整个系统带来巨大成本。我们的研究结果说明了理解跨政策边界的传染的重要性，并为分散辖区设计前瞻性政策提供了一个起点。
Regional quarantine policies, in which a portion of a population surrounding infections is locked down, are an important tool to contain disease. However, jurisdictional governments- such as cities, counties, states, and countries-act with minimal coordination across borders. We show that a regional quarantine policy's effectiveness depends on whether 1) the network of interactions satisfies a growth balance condition, 2) infections have a short delay in detection, and 3) the government has control over and knowledge of the necessary parts of the network (no leakage of behaviors). As these conditions generally fail to be satisfied, especially when interactions cross borders, we show that substantial improvements are possible if governments are outward looking and proactive: triggering quarantines in reaction to neighbors' infection rates, in some cases even before infections are detected internally. We also show that even a few lax governments-those that wait for nontrivial internal infection rates before quarantining-impose substantial costs on the whole system. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding contagion across policy borders and offer a starting point in designing proactive policies for decentralized jurisdictions.