Economy-Wide and Distributional Impacts of an Oil Price Shock on the South African Economy
Economy-Wide and Distributional Impacts of an Oil Price Shock on the South African Economy
复制标题
油价冲击对南非经济的整体经济和分配影响
DOI：
10.1596/1813-9450-4354
复制
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Thierfelder
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Essama;D. Go;M. Kearney;Vijdan Korman;S. Robinson;K. Thierfelder
随着原油价格达到新高，人们再次关切外部冲击将如何影响发展中国家的增长和贫穷。本文介绍了一个宏观微观框架，以审查结构和分配的后果，一个显着的外部冲击，在世界石油价格上涨，对南非经济。作者合并了一个高度分解的可计算的一般均衡模型和微观模拟分析的收入和职业选择的基础上的家庭的社会人口特征的结果。该模型提供了微观模拟中使用的就业、工资和价格的变化。分析发现，原油和成品油价格上涨125%，就业和GDP减少约2%，家庭消费减少约7%。石油价格冲击往往会扩大贫富差距。石油价格冲击的不利影响使正规劳动力市场中较贫穷的部分感受到，表现为工资下降和失业增加。失业主要影响服务部门的中低技能工人。平均而言，高技能家庭从油价冲击中获益。他们的收入增加了，他们的支出篮子也不那么偏向食品和其他受油价变化影响最大的商品。
As crude oil prices reach new highs, there is renewed concern about how external shocks will affect growth and poverty in developing countries. This paper describes a macro-micro framework for examining the structural and distributional consequences of a significant external shock-an increase in the world price of oil-on the South African economy. The authors merge results from a highly disaggregative computable general equilibrium model and a micro-simulation analysis of earnings and occupational choice based on socio-demographic characteristics of the household. The model provides changes in employment, wages, and prices that are used in the micro-simulation. The analysis finds that a 125 percent increase in the price of crude oil and refined petroleum reduces employment and GDP by approximately 2 percent, and reduces household consumption by approximately 7 percent. The oil price shock tends to increase the disparity between rich and poor. The adverse impact of the oil price shock is felt by the poorer segment of the formal labor market in the form of declining wages and increased unemployment. Unemployment hits mostly low and medium-skilled workers in the services sector. High-skilled households, on average, gain from the oil price shock. Their income rises and their spending basket is less skewed toward food and other goods that are most affected by changes in oil prices.