Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma‐Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub‐Plinian event with uncertainty quantification
Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma‐Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub‐Plinian event with uncertainty quantification
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评估索马-维苏威火山群未来的喷口开口位置：2. 具有不确定性量化的未来普林尼/亚普林尼事件的破火山口概率图
DOI：
10.1002/2016jb013860
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Pistolesi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Tadini;A. Bevilacqua;Augusto Neri;R. Cioni;William P. Aspinall;Marina Bisson;R. Isaia;Francesco Mazzarini;Greg A. Valentine;Stefano Vitale;Peter J. Baxter;A. Bertagnini;M. Cerminara;M. Vitturi;A. Roberto;S. Engwell;T. E. Ongaro;Franco Flandoli;M. Pistolesi
在这项研究中，我们结合联合收割机重建的火山数据集和输入结构化的专家判断，以产生第一个长期的概率图喷口开口位置的下一个普林尼或次普林尼喷发的索玛维苏威火山。过去，该火山在喷口位置上表现出很大的空间变异性;这可以对危险发生的地点（特别是火山碎屑密度流）发挥重要的控制作用。新的喷口打开概率映射已经通过（i）开发具有不同数据集的高斯核函数的空间概率密度图和（ii）这些空间密度图的加权线性组合来执行。知识的不确定性影响这些数据集明确量化与专家的判断和实施后的双重随机方法。各种启发汇集指标和专家和目标问题的分组进行了测试，以评估结果的鲁棒性。我们的研究结果表明：（a）Somma-Vesuvio火山口打开的概率分布在整个破火山口内部，峰值对应于当前火山口的面积，但下一个火山口打开的概率超过50%;（B）下一个火山口打开的平均概率约为30%。（c）下一次中大型火山爆发将扩大目前的Somma-Vesuvio破火山口的平均概率约为9.5%，（d）下一次普林尼期或次普林尼期火山爆发将在目前的Somma-Vesuvio破火山口之外打开其初始喷口的概率不可忽略（平均值为6-10%）。
In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a structured expert judgment to produce a first long‐term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub‐Plinian eruption of Somma‐Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialize (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through (i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets and (ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these data sets were quantified explicitly with expert judgments and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics and subgroupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that (a) Somma‐Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; (b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; (c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium‐large eruption will enlarge the present Somma‐Vesuvio caldera, and (d) there is a nonnegligible probability (mean value of 6–10%) that the next Plinian or sub‐Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma‐Vesuvio caldera.