Herding in analyst earnings forecasts: evidence from the United Kingdom

Herding in analyst earnings forecasts: evidence from the United Kingdom
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分析师盈利预测的羊群效应：来自英国的证据

DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Forbes
W. Forbes
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
W. D. Bondt;W. Forbes

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本文对分析师每股收益预测中的羊群行为进行了实证分析。羊群效应被定义为分析师预测之间的“过度一致”，即相对于公司盈利的可预测性，令人惊讶的共识程度。这些数据是1986至1997年间英国公司的数据。我们考察了预测期限和分析师覆盖率对预测准确性和分散度的影响。证据支持过度乐观、过度反应和分析师预测的羊群效应。G1、G14
We present an empirical analysis of herding behavior in analyst forecasts of earnings‐per‐share. Herding is defined as ‘excessive agreement’ among analyst predictions, i.e., a surprising degree of consensus relative to the predictability of corporate earnings. The data are for U.K. companies between 1986 and 1997. We examine the effects of forecast horizon and analyst coverage on forecast accuracy and dispersion. The evidence supports overoptimism, overreaction, and herding in analyst forecasts. G1, G14