Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Nino Event
Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Nino Event
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-38034-z
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发表时间：
2019-02-13
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Linthicum, Kenneth J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anyamba, Assaf;Chretien, Jean-Paul;Linthicum, Kenneth J.
与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象相关的年际气候变化模式导致全球特定地区的气候和环境异常条件，直接有利于基孔肯雅热、汉坦病毒、裂谷热、霍乱、鼠疫和寨卡病毒等各种公共卫生关注疾病的爆发和/或扩大。我们分析了2015-2016年强厄尔尼诺事件期间一些疾病爆发的模式与卫星测量得出的气候异常的关系。在全球多个与厄尔尼诺相关的地区（包括东南亚、坦桑尼亚、美国西部和巴西），疾病暴发发生在降雨、温度和植被发生过度干旱和洪水的变化之后（14-81%的降水偏离正常水平）。这些变化有利于适宜病原体及其媒介在这些地区出现和传播疾病聚集性活动的生态条件。我们的分析表明，在有厄尔尼诺事件的年份，一些enso远相关区域的疾病活动强度比没有厄尔尼诺事件的年份高约2.5-28%。科罗拉多州和新墨西哥州的鼠疫和坦桑尼亚的霍乱与高于正常降雨量显著相关（p < 0.05）；登革热在巴西和东南亚地区与高于正常地表温度显著相关（p < 0.05）。对特定区域校准的关键气候变量异常进行常规和持续的全球卫星监测，可以确定存在疾病媒介出现和传播风险的区域。此类信息可为预防疾病暴发提供充足的前置时间，并有可能减少生态相关疾病的负担和传播。
Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015-2016 El Nino event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Nino-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14-81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5-28% higher during years with El Nino events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.