Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Gastric Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma: A Multicenter Population-Based Study.
Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Gastric Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma: A Multicenter Population-Based Study.
复制标题
胃印戒细胞癌预后列线图的开发和验证：一项基于人群的多中心研究
DOI：
10.3389/fonc.2021.603031
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Xu L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang S;Liu Y;Jiao Z;Li Z;Wang J;Li C;Qu X;Xu L
摘要胃印戒细胞癌是一种罕见且预后不良的疾病。本研究开发并验证了预后列线图，以评估GSRCC患者的总生存期（OS）。本回顾性队列研究入组了来自监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库（2004-2016）和中国医科大学第一医院（CMU 1h）诊断为GSRCC的患者。采用单因素和多因素考克斯分析确定独立的预后因素，构建预后诺模图。通过C指数和校准曲线评价预测。此外，采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线、决策曲线分析（DCA）和Kaplan-Meier分析来评估生存预测模型的临床实用性。将患者分为两个队列。我们将SEER数据库和CMU 1h队列中的患者随机分为训练组（n=3068，80%）和验证组（n=764，20%）。年龄、种族、T分期、N分期、M分期、治疗方式、肿瘤大小与GSRCC患者的预后显著相关。在此基础上，构建列线图，训练和验证队列的C指数分别为0.772（95% CI：0.762-0.782）和0.774（95% CI：0.752-0.796）。通过校准图验证生成的列线图的准确性。与传统AJCC分期系统相比，ROC曲线、DCA曲线和Kaplan-Meier曲线计算的曲线下面积（AUC）结果显示，所构建的诺模图具有较好的预测价值。本研究筛选出7个影响GSRCC预后的独立因素。基于7个变量建立的诺模图模型提供了每个预后因素风险的可视化，并协助临床医生预测GSRCC的1年、3年和5年OS。
Gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRCC) is a rare disease associated with poor prognosis. A prognostic nomogram was developed and validated in this study to assess GSRCC patients’ overall survival (OS). Patients diagnosed with GSRCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004–2016) and the First Hospital of China Medical University (CMU1h) were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate COX analysis was used to determine independent prognostic factors to construct the prognostic nomogram. Predictions were evaluated by the C-index and calibration curve. In addition, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan-Meier analysis were employed to assess the clinical utility of the survival prediction model. Patients were classified into two cohorts. We randomly divided patients in the SEER database and CMU1h cohort into a training group (n=3068, 80%) and a validation group (n=764, 20%). Age, race, T stage, N stage, M stage, therapy, and tumor size were significantly associated with the prognosis of GSRCC patients. On this basis, a nomogram was constructed, with a C-index in the training and the validation cohorts at 0.772 (95% CI: 0.762–0.782) and 0.774 (95% CI: 0.752–0.796), respectively. The accuracy of the generated nomogram was verified through calibration plots. Similarly, compared with the traditional AJCC staging system, the results of the area under curve (AUC) calculated by ROC, DCA, and Kaplan-Meier curves, demonstrated a good predictive value of the constructed nomogram, compared to the traditional AJCC staging system. In the present study, seven independent prognostic factors of GSRCC were screened out. The established nomogram models based on seven variables provided a visualization of each prognostic factor’s risk and assisted clinicians in predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of GSRCC.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Chen TH;Lin WR;Lee C;Chiu CT;Hsu JT;Yeh TS;Lin KH;Le PH;Yeh CT
通讯作者：
Yeh CT
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Son, Taeil;Sun, Jiyu;Hyung, Woo Jin
通讯作者：
Hyung, Woo Jin
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Bando, Etsuro;Makuuchi, Rie;Terashima, Masanori
通讯作者：
Terashima, Masanori
影响因子：
28.4
作者：
Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration;Fitzmaurice C;Allen C;Barber RM;Barregard L;Bhutta ZA;Brenner H;Dicker DJ;Chimed-Orchir O;Dandona R;Dandona L;Fleming T;Forouzanfar MH;Hancock J;Hay RJ;Hunter-Merrill R;Huynh C;Hosgood HD;Johnson CO;Jonas JB;Khubchandani J;Kumar GA;Kutz M;Lan Q;Larson HJ;Liang X;Lim SS;Lopez AD;MacIntyre MF;Marczak L;Marquez N;Mokdad AH;Pinho C;Pourmalek F;Salomon JA;Sanabria JR;Sandar L;Sartorius B;Schwartz SM;Shackelford KA;Shibuya K;Stanaway J;Steiner C;Sun J;Takahashi K;Vollset SE;Vos T;Wagner JA;Wang H;Westerman R;Zeeb H;Zoeckler L;Abd-Allah F;Ahmed MB;Alabed S;Alam NK;Aldhahri SF;Alem G;Alemayohu MA;Ali R;Al-Raddadi R;Amare A;Amoako Y;Artaman A;Asayesh H;Atnafu N;Awasthi A;Saleem HB;Barac A;Bedi N;Bensenor I;Berhane A;Bernabé E;Betsu B;Binagwaho A;Boneya D;Campos-Nonato I;Castañeda-Orjuela C;Catalá-López F;Chiang P;Chibueze C;Chitheer A;Choi JY;Cowie B;Damtew S;das Neves J;Dey S;Dharmaratne S;Dhillon P;Ding E;Driscoll T;Ekwueme D;Endries AY;Farvid M;Farzadfar F;Fernandes J;Fischer F;G/Hiwot TT;Gebru A;Gopalani S;Hailu A;Horino M;Horita N;Husseini A;Huybrechts I;Inoue M;Islami F;Jakovljevic M;James S;Javanbakht M;Jee SH;Kasaeian A;Kedir MS;Khader YS;Khang YH;Kim D;Leigh J;Linn S;Lunevicius R;El Razek HMA;Malekzadeh R;Malta DC;Marcenes W;Markos D;Melaku YA;Meles KG;Mendoza W;Mengiste DT;Meretoja TJ;Miller TR;Mohammad KA;Mohammadi A;Mohammed S;Moradi-Lakeh M;Nagel G;Nand D;Le Nguyen Q;Nolte S;Ogbo FA;Oladimeji KE;Oren E;Pa M;Park EK;Pereira DM;Plass D;Qorbani M;Radfar A;Rafay A;Rahman M;Rana SM;Søreide K;Satpathy M;Sawhney M;Sepanlou SG;Shaikh MA;She J;Shiue I;Shore HR;Shrime MG;So S;Soneji S;Stathopoulou V;Stroumpoulis K;Sufiyan MB;Sykes BL;Tabarés-Seisdedos R;Tadese F;Tedla BA;Tessema GA;Thakur JS;Tran BX;Ukwaja KN;Uzochukwu BSC;Vlassov VV;Weiderpass E;Wubshet Terefe M;Yebyo HG;Yimam HH;Yonemoto N;Younis MZ;Yu C;Zaidi Z;Zaki MES;Zenebe ZM;Murray CJL;Naghavi M
通讯作者：
Naghavi M
影响因子：
254.7
作者：
Siegel, Rebecca L.;Miller, Kimberly D.;Jemal, Ahmedin
通讯作者：
Jemal, Ahmedin