The China–Pakistan–United States Strategic Triangle: From Cold War to the “War on Terrorism”
The China–Pakistan–United States Strategic Triangle: From Cold War to the “War on Terrorism”
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中巴美战略三角：从冷战到“反恐战争”
DOI：
10.1080/00927678.2011.604291
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Smith
摘要 美国海豹突击队对巴基斯坦阿伯塔巴德的袭击以及伊斯兰堡随后转向中国，凸显了冷战最显着的遗产之一：由中国、巴基斯坦和美国组成的战略三角的持续存在。在整个冷战的大部分时间里，中国和美国都在竞相将巴基斯坦留在各自的势力范围内，而巴基斯坦则巧妙地利用微妙的权力斗争来改善其对印度的安全状况。尽管竞争持续存在，战略三角国家仍存在三个主要交汇点：（1）1969-71年期间，巴基斯坦充当北京和华盛顿秘密会谈的渠道，随后在1971年印巴战争期间实现了相互协调； (2) 1979年苏联入侵阿富汗之后的十年； (3) 美国 9/11 袭击事件发生后的几年，全球焦点转向阿富汗和恐怖主义。随着巴基斯坦日益被全球视为恐怖活动的根源和恐怖暴力的受害者，围绕恐怖主义的第三次趋同尤为突出。从长远来看，战略三角可能会充当调节力量，防止拥有核能力的巴基斯坦内部出现不稳定，并限制某些巴基斯坦国家机关可能与大规模杀伤性武器扩散和秘密支持激进组织有关的活动。
Abstract The U.S. Navy SEAL raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and Islamabad's subsequent turn toward China have highlighted one of the most remarkable legacies of the Cold War: the persistence of a strategic triangle composed of China, Pakistan, and the United States. Throughout much of the Cold War, China and the United States competed to keep Pakistan within their particular sphere of influence, while Pakistan deftly took advantage of the subtle power struggle to improve its security profile vis-à-vis India. Despite persistent competition, the nations of the strategic triangle enjoyed three major convergence points: (1) the 1969–71 period, when Pakistan acted as a conduit for secret talks between Beijing and Washington, which subsequently led to mutual coordination during the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war; (2) the decade following the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979; and (3) the years following the 9/11 attacks in the United States, when global focus turned to Afghanistan and terrorism. This third convergence around terrorism is particularly salient, as Pakistan is increasingly viewed globally as both a source of terrorist activity and a victim of terrorist violence. In the long term, the strategic triangle may act as a modulating force that may prevent instability within nuclear-capable Pakistan, as well as constrain activities by certain Pakistani state organs that may be linked to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and clandestine support for militant organizations.