Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model
Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-010-0349-6
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发表时间：
2010-09-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Comrie, Andrew C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Morin, Cory W.;Comrie, Andrew C.
气候可以强烈影响病媒的种群动态，因此是疾病生态学的一个关键组成部分。未来的气候变化和变异性可能会改变许多病媒的位置和季节性，可能会增加疾病传播给人类的风险。致倦库蚊（Culex quinquefasciatus）是美国南部的一个令人担忧的物种，因为它是西尼罗河病毒的载体，对城市环境具有亲和力。使用大气变量（温度和降水）和蚊子发展之间的关系，我们已经创建了动态蚊子模拟模型（DyMSiM）来模拟Cx。致倦鸟种群动态该模型是由气候数据驱动的，并对来自佛罗里达帕斯科县和加州科切拉谷的蚊子计数数据进行了验证。使用1周和2周的过滤器，蚊子诱捕器数据被模型很好地再现（P < 0.0001）。加州南部的干燥环境与佛罗里达潮湿地区产生不同的蚊子种群趋势。佛罗里达和加州的蚊子种群通常在冬季受到温度限制。在加州，一年中的大部分时间都是水资源有限的。利用美国国家大气研究中心CCSM 3大气环流模型生成的未来气候预测数据，我们将温度和降水抵消应用于每个地点的气候数据，以评估蚊子种群对未来可能气候条件的敏感性。我们发现，温度和降水量的变化相互依赖，导致显着的变化，在模拟蚊子种群动态。影响包括：由于未成熟蚊子栖息地的丧失，加州夏季蚊子数量因干燥而下降;由于夏末条件干燥，佛罗里达的夏末蚊子数量减少。
Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model (P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.