Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use
Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use
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DOI：
10.3390/land6030056
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发表时间：
2017-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
J. Millington;Hang Xiong;S. Peterson;J. Woods
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Millington;Hang Xiong;S. Peterson;J. Woods
远距离耦合框架是一个综合概念，强调遥远地方之间的社会经济和环境相互作用。从远距离联接框架的透镜来看，土地使用和粮食消费通过决策机构和贸易流动在地方和全球范围内相互联系。像这样的远程耦合系统的动态量化建模可以使用许多不同的建模方法来实现。例如，以前模拟全球粮食贸易的方法往往使用部分平衡经济模型，而最近代表地方土地使用决策的方法则广泛使用基于代理人的模型。系统动力学模型已经建立，用于表示远距离位置之间的产品和价值的聚合流和存储。我们认为，混合计算模型将是有用的，利用这些不同的建模方法的优势，每个代表的各种概念的远耦合框架。然而，将多种建模方法整合到混合模型中面临着挑战，包括数据要求和不确定性评估。为了帮助指导混合模型的发展，通过远程耦合框架调查可持续发展，我们在这里研究了全球粮食贸易和当地土地利用的背景下，重要的代表性和建模考虑。我们报告我们自己的模型，采用多种建模方法在一个模块化的方法来谈判理想的代表性和建模资源约束之间的权衡发展。在这个初始模型中，我们的重点是美国，中国和巴西之间的土地使用和食品贸易，但也考虑到世界其他地区。我们讨论了集成多种建模方法的挑战，使代理，流量和反馈的分析在远程耦合系统。我们的分析表明，代理的代表性差异是可能的，应该在综合模型中预期。关于远耦动态的问题应该是选择建模方法的主要驱动力，并受到资源可用性的影响。还需要确定适当的建模评估和分析工具，并学习它们在其他领域的应用。
The telecoupling framework is an integrated concept that emphasises socioeconomic and environmental interactions between distant places. Viewed through the lens of the telecoupling framework, land use and food consumption are linked across local to global scales by decision-making agents and trade flows. Quantitatively modelling the dynamics of telecoupled systems like this could be achieved using numerous different modelling approaches. For example, previous approaches to modelling global food trade have often used partial equilibrium economic models, whereas recent approaches to representing local land use decision-making have widely used agent-based modelling. System dynamics models are well established for representing aggregated flows and stores of products and values between distant locations. We argue that hybrid computational models will be useful for capitalising on the strengths these different modelling approaches each have for representing the various concepts in the telecoupling framework. However, integrating multiple modelling approaches into hybrid models faces challenges, including data requirements and uncertainty assessment. To help guide the development of hybrid models for investigating sustainability through the telecoupling framework here we examine important representational and modelling considerations in the context of global food trade and local land use. We report on the development of our own model that incorporates multiple modelling approaches in a modular approach to negotiate the trade-offs between ideal representation and modelling resource constraints. In this initial modelling our focus is on land use and food trade in and between USA, China and Brazil, but also accounting for the rest of the world. We discuss the challenges of integrating multiple modelling approaches to enable analysis of agents, flows, and feedbacks in the telecoupled system. Our analysis indicates differences in representation of agency are possible and should be expected in integrated models. Questions about telecoupling dynamics should be the primary driver in selecting modelling approaches, tempered by resource availability. There is also a need to identify appropriate modelling assessment and analysis tools and learn from their application in other domains.