Optimal Design of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine with Manufacturing Autonomy
Optimal Design of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine with Manufacturing Autonomy
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DOI：
10.1287/ijoc.2017.0786
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发表时间：
2018-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Osman Y. Özaltın;O. Prokopyev;A. Schaefer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Osman Y. Özaltın;O. Prokopyev;A. Schaefer
流感是一个严重的公共卫生问题。第一道防线是流感疫苗，其成分每年都会更新，以适应流行病毒的频繁突变。世界卫生组织根据全球监测情况推荐流感疫苗中应包含哪些菌株。疫苗制造商生产三价和四价流感疫苗。然而，流感疫苗的设计会影响制造商的产能和利润。作为回报，制造商的生产决策通过确定覆盖范围和及时可用性来影响社会疫苗接种效益。我们使用双层多级随机混合整数程序对这个两层层次结构进行建模。我们的模型使用公开数据进行校准，将流感疫苗的成分和制造集成在随机和动态的环境中。我们推导出分支价格算法来寻找全局最优解。我们还提出了一种有效的启发式方法，为公共卫生规划者提供决策辅助工具......
Influenza (flu) is a serious public health concern. The first line of defense is the flu shot, whose composition is updated annually to adjust for frequent mutations of the circulating viruses. The World Health Organization recommends which strains to include in the flu shot based on global surveillance. Vaccine manufacturers produce trivalent and quadrivalent flu shots. The design of the flu shot, however, affects the manufacturers’ capacity and profit. In return, production decisions of the manufacturers affect the societal vaccination benefit by determining coverage and timely availability. We model this two-level hierarchy using a bilevel multistage stochastic mixed-integer program. Calibrated with publicly available data, our model integrates the flu shot composition and manufacturing in a stochastic and dynamic environment. We derive a branch-and-price algorithm to find the global optimal solution. We also propose an effective heuristic to provide the public health planners with a decision aid tool....