Developing a Bayesian Network Model for Supply Chain Risk Assessment
Developing a Bayesian Network Model for Supply Chain Risk Assessment
复制标题
开发用于供应链风险评估的贝叶斯网络模型
DOI：
10.1080/16258312.2015.11728693
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Saurabh Sharma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Sharma;Saurabh Sharma
摘要基于贝叶斯网络的概率模型在企业管理领域是一个新的概念。它用于风险评估，以预测供应链中断及其对供应链目标的后果是非常有限的。本研究的目的，是开发一个风险评估工具，以评估和确定所面临的供应链的风险。在竞争日益激烈的全球经济中，企业面临着供应链不确定性的中断，这进一步削弱了他们的品牌价值。所提出的概率模型，更新本身的新证据，并计算边际概率的所有风险变量和供应链目标，通过条件概率表。该模型使供应链管理人员能够预测供应链中任何破坏性风险因素的机会。
Abstract The Bayesian network based probability model is very new to the field of business management. Its use for risk assessment to predict the supply chain disruption and their consequences on the supply chain goals is very limited. The purpose of this research, is to develop a risk assessment tool to assess and to determine the risk exposure faced by a supply chain. In a global economy with ever-growing competition the firms are facing uncertain disruptions in their supply chains that further dent their brand value. The proposed probabilistic model that updates itself in the light of new evidences and calculates marginal probabilities for all risk variables and supply chain goals through conditional probability tables. The proposed model empowers the supply chain managers to predict the chances of any disruptive risk factors in the supply chain.