System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis
System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2016.04.037
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发表时间：
2016-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Powell;N. Mustafee;A. Chen;M. Hammond
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Powell;N. Mustafee;A. Chen;M. Hammond
目前的风险管理办法强调，需要采取动态（即持续不断的）办法来确定风险，作为有计划的资源应用的一部分，目的是减少评估对象不希望的结果的预期后果。我们认为，这些方法没有充分重视评估人员可用的系统知识，特别是在三个因素方面，即受威胁系统的动态行为、人类代理的角色以及这些代理的知识可用性。在本文中，我们解决了这些缺点中的第一个，即在风险识别中动员显式系统知识。我们提出了一个程序，动员定量和定性的动态系统知识的情况下，洪水威胁变电站作为一个工作的例子。我们断言，所描述的方法提供了通过调动系统知识来提高风险认知的潜力。
Current approaches to risk management stress the need for dynamic (i.e. continuous, ongoing) approaches to risk identification as part of a planned resource application aimed at reducing the expected consequences of undesired outcomes for the object of the assessment. We contend that these approaches place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of three factors, namely the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents and the knowledge availability to those agents.In this paper we address the first of these shortcomings, namely the mobilization of explicit system knowledge in the identification of risks. We present a procedure for mobilizing quantitative and qualitative dynamic system knowledge using the case of flood threat to an electricity substation as a worked example. We assert that the approach described offers the potential of improving risk cognition by mobilizing system knowledge.