Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan
Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.196
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发表时间：
2019-09-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Honda, Yasushi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Onozuka, Daisuke;Gasparrini, Antonio;Honda, Yasushi
背景：最近的研究报告了全球气候变化与死亡率之间的关系。然而，未来的预测温度相关的院外心脏骤停（OHCA）尚未得到彻底的评估。因此，我们的目的是项目的温度相关的发病率OHCA伴随着climate change.Methods：我们收集了所有OHCA的情况下，在2005-2015年从所有47个日本都道府县报告的国家登记数据。我们使用了两个阶段的时间序列分析来估计温度OHCA的关系。利用5种大气环流模式，按照4种典型浓度路径的气候变化情景，构建了当前和未来日平均气温变化的时间序列。我们预计在1990年至2099年的每一个气候变化的情况下，没有适应或人口changes.Results的假设，热和冷的净变化的超额发病率：在研究期间，739,717 OHCAs推定心脏起源的报告。在更高排放情景下，观察到与温度相关的超额发病率净减少。2090-2099年与2010-2019年相比的净变化为-0.8%（95%经验置信区间[eCI]：-1.9，0.1）（RCP 2.6），-2.6%（95% eCI：-4.4，-0.8）稳定情景（RCP 4.5），-3.4%（95% ea：-5.7，-1.0）稳定情景（RCP 6.0），和-4.2%（95% eCI：-8.3，-0.1）极端排放情景（RCP 8.5）.结论：我们的研究表明，在高排放情景下，日本预计将经历OHCAs的大幅净减少。风险的降低仅限于特定的发病原因，在气候变化假设情景范围内进行的更广泛的评估应考虑其他直接和间接影响。(C)2019 Elsevier B. V.版权所有。
Background: Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change.Methods: We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways ( RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes.Results: During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6), -2.6% (95% eCI: -4.4, -0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), -3.4% (95% ea: -5.7, -1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and - 4.2% (95% eCI: -8.3, -0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5).Conclusions: Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.