Residential emissions predicted as a major source of fine particulate matter in winter over the Yangtze River Delta, China
Residential emissions predicted as a major source of fine particulate matter in winter over the Yangtze River Delta, China
复制标题
预计住宅排放将成为中国长三角地区冬季细颗粒物的主要来源
DOI：
10.1007/s10311-018-0735-6
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
影响因子：
15.7
通讯作者：
Seinfeld, John H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu, Yujie;Wang, Peng;Seinfeld, John H.
空气污染是一个日益严重的健康问题，导致全世界许多疾病和死亡。在中国，针对长三角地区严重的空气污染，当地政府制定了“五年规划”，制定了2020年阶段性目标的大气污染防治路线图，但这些政策的有效性仍存在不确定性。因此需要准确预测控制策略。在这里，我们对根据“十三五”规划政策设计的工业和电厂正常或加强减排、工业、电厂和交通正常或加强减排四种排放控制策略的预测效果进行了计算评估。使用双向耦合天气研究和预报 - 社区多尺度空气质量 (WRF-CMAQ) 模型对 PM2.5（例如空气动力学直径小于 2.5 μm 的颗粒物）浓度进行了有效性测试。结果显示，通过实施四项排放控制策略，只有杭州、合肥、南京、上海四个主要城市中排放控制最严格的杭州能够实现“十三五”PM2.5浓度下降20%的目标，表明现行政策不足以控制长三角地区严重的空气污染。敏感性测试显示，杭州、合肥、南京、上海四个主要城市1月份PM2.5浓度贡献最大的是居民排放，其次是农业、工业、交通和发电厂。 PM2.5的预计年平均减少百分比最高的是杭州，从-9.7%到-20.1%，其次是南京，从-8.2%到-18.7%，上海从-7.4%到-15.8%，合肥从-6.1%到-13.8%。这一发现凸显了住宅排放的主导地位，应该更好地控制住宅排放，尤其是煤炭燃烧。相比之下，预测区域交通和自然资源对四个城市 PM2.5 平均浓度的年贡献范围为 29.2% 至 36.6%。总体而言，一项重大发现是，对于 PM2.5 浓度而言，住宅来源与工业、发电厂和交通来源的重要性相当，尤其是在冬季。这些信息将帮助中国其他地区以及其他发展中国家的政府针对发展中国家使用煤炭取暖和做饭的情况制定更合适的排放控制策略。
Air pollution is an increasingly critical health issue responsible for numerous diseases and deaths worldwide. In China, to address severe air pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region, the local government has formulated Five-Year Plans to set the road map for air pollution control by phased targets in 2020, but the effectiveness of these policies is still uncertain. There is therefore a need for accurate prediction of control strategies. Here we present a computational evaluation of the predicted effectiveness of four emission control strategies: normal or enhanced emission reduction for industry and power plants, and normal or enhanced emission reduction for industry, power plants and transportation, designed on the basis of policies of the 13th Five-Year Plans. Effectiveness was tested on concentrations of PM2.5, e.g., particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm, using the two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting—Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model. Results show that by implementing the four emission control strategies, only Hangzhou with the strictest emission controls in four main cities (Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanjing and Shanghai) can meet the 20% reduction goals of PM2.5concentrations in the 13th Five-Year Plan, indicating that current policies are not sufficient to control the severe air pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region. Sensitivity tests show that residential emissions have the highest contributions to the PM2.5concentrations in January in the four main cities of Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanjing and Shanghai, followed by agriculture, industry, transportation and power plants. Predicted annual mean reduction percentages for PM2.5are the highest in Hangzhou, from − 9.7 to − 20.1%, followed by Nanjing, from − 8.2 to − 18.7%, Shanghai, from − 7.4 to − 15.8%, and Hefei, from − 6.1 to − 13.8%. This finding highlights the predominance of residential emissions, which should be better controlled, notably coal burning. By comparison, predicted annual contributions of regional transport and natural sources to mean PM2.5concentrations in four cities range from 29.2 to 36.6%. Overall, a major finding is that residential sources are of comparable importance to industrial, power plant and transportation sources to PM2.5concentrations, especially for winter. This information will help governments of other regions of China, as well as other developing countries, to formulate more appropriate emission control strategies where coal is used for heating and cooking purposes in the developing countries.