FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x
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发表时间：
1968-09
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
E. Altman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Altman
学术界似乎正在逐步淘汰比率分析作为评估企业绩效的一种分析技术。理论家们降低了被实践者广泛使用的武断的经验法则的等级，比如公司比率比较。既然对比率分析相关性的攻击来自学术界许多受人尊敬的成员，这是否意味着比率分析仅限于“螺母和螺栓”的世界？或者，这种方法的意义是否被不吸引人的外衣所掩盖，从而不公平地受到阻碍？传统的比率“分析”与近年来在学者中流行的更严格的统计技术之间，我们能否弥合差距，而不是切断联系？本文的目的是试图评估这个问题的质量比率分析作为一种分析技术。公司破产预测被用作说明性案例。具体而言，将在破产预测的背景下研究一组财务和经济比率，其中采用了多重判别统计方法。研究中使用的数据仅限于制造企业。第一节简要回顾了传统比率分析作为一种调查公司业绩的技术的发展。在第二节中，这种方法的缺点进行了讨论，并介绍了多重判别分析的重点集中在它的兼容性比率分析在破产预测方面。判别模型是在第三节中开发的，其中66家公司的初始样本被用来建立一个功能，最好区分公司在两个相互排斥的群体：破产和非破产公司。第四节回顾了从初始样本和几个次级样本中获得的经验结果，选择后者来检查判别式的可靠性
ACADEMICIANS SEEM to be moving toward the elimination of ratio analysis as an analytical technique in assessing the performance of the business enterprise. Theorists downgrade arbitrary rules of thumb, such as company ratio comparisons, widely used by practitioners. Since attacks on the relevance of ratio analysis emanate from many esteemed members of the scholarly world, does this mean that ratio analysis is limited to the world of "nuts and bolts"? Or, has the significance of such an approach been unattractively garbed and therefore unfairly handicapped? Can we bridge the gap, rather than sever the link, between traditional ratio "analysis" and the more rigorous statistical techniques which have become popular among academicians in recent years? The purpose of this paper is to attempt an assessment of this issue-the quality of ratio analysis as an analytical technique. The prediction of corporate bankruptcy is used as an illustrative case.' Specifically, a set of financial and economic ratios will be investigated in a bankruptcy prediction context wherein a multiple discriminant statistical methodology is employed. The data used in the study are limited to manufacturing corporations. A brief review of the development of traditional ratio analysis as a technique for investigating corporate performance is presented in section I. In section II the shortcomings of this approach are discussed and multiple discriminant analysis is introduced with the emphasis centering on its compatibility with ratio analysis in a bankruptcy prediction context. The discriminant model is developed in section III, where an initial sample of sixty-six firms is utilized to establish a function which best discriminates between companies in two mutually exclusive groups: bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms. Section IV reviews empirical results obtained from the initial sample and several secondary samples, the latter being selected to examine the reliability of the discriminant