Debt, deficits, and crowding out: England, 1727–1840
Debt, deficits, and crowding out: England, 1727–1840
复制标题
债务、赤字和排挤：英格兰，1727 年至 1840 年
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Clark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Clark
到19世纪20年代，由于与法国的长期斗争，英国政府债务的市场价值是英国GDP的两倍。有人认为，这种债务代表了政府的巨大制度失败，通过挤出私人投资，显著减缓了工业革命时期的增长。本文构建了1725年至1839年私人回报率的衡量指标，并表明这些指标意味着政府赤字和不断增加的债务都与更高的私人资本回报率无关。政府发行如此多的债券而不提高回报率的原因尚不清楚。一种可能性是挤出效应确实存在，但1770 - 1839年的人口增长减少了租金收入占GDP的比例，创造了对其他资产收入的需求，因此我们没有观察到资本市场的紧缩。
By the 1820s, as a result of the protracted struggle with France, the market value of the British Government debt was twice British GDP. It has been argued that this debt represented a huge institutional failure by the government, significantly slowing growth in the Industrial Revolution period by crowding out private investment. This article constructs measures of private rates of return in the years 1725–1839 and shows these imply that neither the government deficits nor the mounting debt are associated with much higher private rates of return on capital. The reason the government could issue so much debt without raising rates of return is unclear. One possibility is that crowding out was occurring, but population growth in 1770–1839 was reducing rental income as a fraction of GDP, creating a demand for other asset income so that we do not observe tightness in capital markets.