The increase of female breast cancer incidence in Japan: Emergence of birth cohort effect
The increase of female breast cancer incidence in Japan: Emergence of birth cohort effect
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DOI：
10.1002/ijc.11661
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发表时间：
2004-03-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Hisamichi, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Minami, Y;Tsubono, Y;Hisamichi, S
近几十年来，日本乳腺癌发病率不断上升。根据日本多个癌症登记处的最新报告，乳腺癌已成为女性癌症发病率的首位癌症部位。为了详细分析乳腺癌发病的趋势，我们总结了1959-1997年日本宫城县女性乳腺癌的发病情况，并利用年龄-时期-队列模型评估了时期和队列对乳腺癌发病的影响。在连续的日历期间内，特定年龄和年龄标准化的比率有所增加。 1980 年左右，这些发病率加速上升。包括年龄、时期和队列的完整模型最适合发病趋势。在模型中，时期和队列的影响具有统计显着性。队列的非线性效应显示出增加的趋势，从1888-1897年的队列开始，周期的非线性效应显示随着日历周期风险明显增加。此外，包括线性成分的完整模型显示队列效应稳步上升的趋势。根据我们之前在宫城县进行的流行病学研究以及其他已发表的报告，队列效应可能与具有低胎次和母乳喂养不足等危险因素的女性患病率的变化有关。我们认为，队列效应的出现是一个重要的发现，尽管时期效应也可能持续存在。显着的队列效应可能会给日本乳腺癌发病率的持续上升敲响警钟。 (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
During recent decades, breast cancer incidence has been increasing in Japan. According to the latest reports from several cancer registries in Japan, the breast has become the leading cancer site in female cancer incidence. To analyze the trend of breast cancer incidence in detail, we summarized female breast cancer incidence in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan during 1959-1997, and evaluated the period and cohort effect on breast cancer incidence using the age-period-cohort model. Age-specific and age-standardized rates have increased over successive calendar periods. Around 1980, an accelerated increase in these incidence rates took place. A full model including age, period and cohort was best fitted to the trend of incidence. In the model, the effects of period and cohort were statistically significant. The nonlinear effect for cohort indicates an increasing trend, beginning with the cohort in 1888-1897, and the nonlinear effect for period showed a clear increase in risk with calendar period. Furthermore, the full model including a linear component showed a steadily upward trend in the cohort effect. Based on our own epidemiologic studies previously conducted in Miyagi Prefecture, and other published reports, the cohort effect is likely to be related to the change in prevalence of women with risk factors such as low parity and insufficient breastfeeding. We believe that the emergence of the cohort effect is an important finding, although the period effect may also persist. The significant cohort effect may give a caution for continuous increase of breast cancer incidence in Japan. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.