Future cardiovascular disease in china: markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the coronary heart disease policy model-china.
Future cardiovascular disease in china: markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the coronary heart disease policy model-china.
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DOI：
10.1161/circoutcomes.109.910711
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发表时间：
2010-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Goldman L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Moran A;Gu D;Zhao D;Coxson P;Wang YC;Chen CS;Liu J;Cheng J;Bibbins-Domingo K;Shen YM;He J;Goldman L
尚未详细量化个人和危险因素趋势趋势对未来心血管疾病的相对影响。
根据先前的趋势，预计中国的未来危险因素趋势是根据先前的趋势（冠心病和中风）的35至84岁的冠状动脉疾病（冠心病和中风）在2010年至2030年之间，由于人口老化和增长，预计的年度心血管事件的预计增加了50％。将年度心血管疾病事件增加23％，在2010年至2030年增加约2130万心血管疾病和770万心血管死亡。在2020年积极降低中国男性的活跃吸烟至2020年的患病率和10％男性和女性的平均收缩压在3.8毫米汞柱中通过防止心血管事件来抵消其他危险因素的不利趋势，而在20年中，总死亡人数为2.9至570万。
在未来20年中，衰老和人口增长将使心血管疾病增加一半以上，预计血压，总胆固醇，糖尿病和体重指数的不利趋势可能会加速旨在控制血压，吸烟。以及其他危险因素将抵消中国预期的未来心血管疾病流行。
The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.