Capital Flows Among the G-7 Nations: A Demographic Perspective
Capital Flows Among the G-7 Nations: A Demographic Perspective
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七国集团国家之间的资本流动：人口视角
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.481643
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Feroli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Feroli
消费行为的标准生命周期模型预测，家庭的年龄会影响其储蓄行为。此外，简单的国民核算恒等式表明，一个国家的经常账户余额反映了其储蓄-投资失衡。因此，各国年龄分布的差异应会影响经常账户。为了检验这一理论的可验证性和意义，我模拟了一个多地区的世代重叠模型，该模型经过校准以匹配过去50年来主要工业化国家之间的人口差异。在模型中，它被发现，这些差异可以解释一些观察到的长期资本运动在七国集团。特别是，该模型在预测美国经常账户赤字的规模和时间以及日本经常账户盈余方面做得很好。
The standard life-cycle model of consumption behavior predicts that a household's age will influence its saving behavior. Moreover, simple national accounting identities reveal that a country's current account balance reflects its savings-investment imbalance. Thus, differences in national age-profiles should affect the current account. To test this theory's plausibility and significance, I simulate a multi-region overlapping generations model that is calibrated to match the demographic differences among the major industrialized countries over the past 50 years. In the model, it is found that these differences can explain some of the observed long-term capital movements in the G-7. In particular, the model does a good job of predicting the size and timing of American current account deficits as well as Japanese current account surpluses.