Flood-induced population displacements in the world
Flood-induced population displacements in the world
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abc586
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Kanae, Shinjiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kakinuma, Kaoru;Puma, Michael J.;Kanae, Shinjiro
加强社会对极端天气事件的复原力是世界各地的一个紧迫和关键的优先事项。极端天气往往造成人口流离失所，危及人的安全。环境引起的流离失所是多方面的，因为极端气候、人口和社会经济条件等因素共同影响个人的迁移决定。当大规模的灾难性洪水发生时，人们往往会为了生存而突然迅速地迁移。在全球范围内量化这种流离失所的模式和机制，对于支持气候导致流离失所的高风险地区至关重要。在这里，我们通过绘制潜在的洪水风险和观察到的洪水引起的流离失所的脆弱性的全球分布。我们发现，非洲国家可能非常容易受到洪水的影响，因为即使在中低洪水风险下，它们也有很高的洪水引起的流离失所。我们的研究结果表明，收入水平（国民总收入）对洪水引起的流离失所产生重大影响。此外，收入水平与流离失所之间的关系是非线性的，这种非线性表明，高收入国家和低收入国家之间洪水引起的流离失所差距很大。我们认为，低收入国家，特别是非洲国家，面临洪水引发流离失所的可能性很大，需要制定适应措施，以减轻流离失所的可能性和相关风险。
Strengthening the resilience of societies to extreme weather events is an urgent and critical priority around the world. Extreme weather often causes population displacement that compromises human security. Environment-induced displacement is multifaceted because climate extremes, population, and socio-economic conditions, among other factors, converge to influence individuals' decisions to move. When large-scale, catastrophic floods occur, people tend to move both suddenly and rapidly for survival. Quantifying the patterns and mechanisms of such displacement at global scale is essential to support areas at high risk for climate-induced displacement. Here we present the global distribution of vulnerability to floods by mapping potential flood exposure and observed flood-induced displacement. We found that countries in Africa might be highly vulnerable to floods because they have high flood-induced displacement even at low- to mid-level flood exposure. Our results show that income levels (Gross National Income) substantial impact flood-induced displacement. Moreover, the relationship between income levels and displacement is nonlinear, and this nonlinearity indicates large gaps in flood-induced displacement between high- and low-income countries. We suggest that low-income countries, particularly in Africa, face a high likelihood of flood-induced displacement and need to develop adaptation measures to mitigate the potential for displacement and the associated risks.