A method for using epidemiologic data to estimate the potential impact of an intervention on the health status of a target population.
A method for using epidemiologic data to estimate the potential impact of an intervention on the health status of a target population.
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DOI：
10.1007/bf01318961
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发表时间：
1982-01-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Bursic, E S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morgenstern, H;Bursic, E S
提出了一种通用的方法，用于估计潜在影响的预防计划，涉及危险因素的修改对特定疾病的发病率在目标人群。一个评价框架比较替代干预策略。根据流行病学研究的结果，用户必须指定某些参数，说明要修改的危险因素在人口中的分布、危险因素与疾病之间的关联程度以及人口中疾病的总风险。一个定量的措施，所谓的潜在影响分数，是用来估计预期的新病例的比例，可能会被阻止在不同的成功干预计划。然后使用该测量的估计值来评估计划的干预策略的潜在功效、有效性、充分性和效率。该方法与已发表的数据相关的中年美国男性的相对体重和冠心病，比较不同的减肥策略。的方法和解释结果的关键假设进行了讨论。
A general method is proposed for estimating the potential impact of a prevention program involving risk factor modification on the incidence of specific diseases in a target population. An evaluative framework for comparing alternative intervention strategies is also presented. On the basis of results from epidemiologic studies, the user must specify certain parameters regarding the distribution of the risk factor that is to be modified in the population, the magnitude of the association between the risk factor and disease, and the total risk of disease in the population. A quantitative measure, called the potential impact fraction, is derived to estimate the proportion of expected new cases that may be prevented under intervention programs of varying success. Estimates of this measure are then used to assess the potential efficacy, effectiveness, adequacy, and efficiency of planned intervention strategies. The method is illustrated with published data relating relative weight and coronary heart disease among middle-aged U.S. men, comparing different strategies of weight reduction. Key assumptions of the method and interpretation of results are discussed.