Accounting for Methodological, Structural, and Parameter Uncertainty in Decision-Analytic Models: A Practical Guide
Accounting for Methodological, Structural, and Parameter Uncertainty in Decision-Analytic Models: A Practical Guide
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DOI：
10.1177/0272989x11409240
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发表时间：
2011-07-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Jit, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bilcke, Joke;Beutels, Philippe;Jit, Mark
考虑不确定性现在是决策分析建模的标准部分，并被许多卫生技术机构和出版的指南推荐。然而，这种分析的范围往往是有限的，即使技术已经开发出的方法，结构和参数的不确定性模型结果的影响。为了帮助将这些技术纳入主流使用，作者提出了一个循序渐进的指南，提供了一个综合的方法来考虑同一模型中的不同类型的不确定性，沿着一个检查表，用于评估不确定性被纳入的方式。该指南还涉及特殊情况，例如难以对不确定性来源进行参数化，资源有限无法对不确定性进行理想的探索，或者无法获得或不可靠的模型证据。还描述了用于识别对结果影响最大的不确定性来源的方法。除了指导分析师，指南和清单可能是有用的决策者谁需要评估如何以及不确定性已占在决策分析模型之前使用的结果作出决定。
Accounting for uncertainty is now a standard part of decision-analytic modeling and is recommended by many health technology agencies and published guidelines. However, the scope of such analyses is often limited, even though techniques have been developed for presenting the effects of methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty on model results. To help bring these techniques into mainstream use, the authors present a step-by-step guide that offers an integrated approach to account for different kinds of uncertainty in the same model, along with a checklist for assessing the way in which uncertainty has been incorporated. The guide also addresses special situations such as when a source of uncertainty is difficult to parameterize, resources are limited for an ideal exploration of uncertainty, or evidence to inform the model is not available or not reliable. Methods for identifying the sources of uncertainty that influence results most are also described. Besides guiding analysts, the guide and checklist may be useful to decision makers who need to assess how well uncertainty has been accounted for in a decision-analytic model before using the results to make a decision.