Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada
Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada
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DOI：
10.3390/environments10010012
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发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Anabel G. Winitsky;D. Meko;A. Taylor;F. Biondi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anabel G. Winitsky;D. Meko;A. Taylor;F. Biondi
降水量的逐年变化对水资源管理和森林健康具有重大影响。“鞭打”描述了这种变化的极端模式，其中水文气候在潮湿和干燥条件之间突然切换。在这项研究中，池的总环宽度指数从五个针叶树种（冷杉magnifica，巨圆柏，黄松，松jeffreyi，和铁杉）在内华达州的山脉被用来开发重建水年降水量采用逐步线性回归滞后年表，重建进行了分析，其跟踪挥鞭事件的能力。一个非参数的方法被引入到统计分类的积极和消极的事件，并使用超几何检验的重建匹配观察到的事件的成功进行评估。结果表明，重建可以有效地跟踪挥鞭事件，但跟踪能力不同的物种和网站。虽然负面（干到湿）事件（1921年至1989年）通常比正面事件跟踪更一致，铁杉脱颖而出，积极事件的强烈跟踪。跟踪能力没有表现出明确的关系，重建解释的方差，这表明，努力延长鞭打记录与树木年轮数据应考虑优化重建模型的鞭打信号。
The year-to-year variability of precipitation has significant consequences for water management and forest health. “Whiplash” describes an extreme mode of this variability in which hydroclimate switches abruptly between wet and dry conditions. In this study, a pool of total-ring-width indices from five conifer species (Abies magnifica, Juniperus grandis, Pinus ponderosa, Pinus jeffreyi, and Tsuga mertensiana) in the Sierra Nevada is used to develop reconstructions of water-year precipitation using stepwise linear regression on lagged chronologies, and the reconstructions are analyzed for their ability to track whiplash events. A nonparametric approach is introduced to statistically classify positive and negative events, and the success of matching observed events with the reconstructions is evaluated using a hypergeometric test. Results suggest that reconstructions can effectively track whiplash events, but that tracking ability differs among species and sites. Although negative (dry-to-wet) events (1921–1989) are generally tracked more consistently than positive events, Tsuga stands out for strong tracking of positive events. Tracking ability shows no clear relationship to variance explained by reconstructions, suggesting that efforts to extend whiplash records with tree-ring data should consider optimizing reconstruction models for the whiplash signal.