The Uptick in Income Segregation: Real Trend or Random Sampling Variation?
The Uptick in Income Segregation: Real Trend or Random Sampling Variation?
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DOI：
10.1086/697528
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Li, Fan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Logan, John R.;Foster, Andrew;Li, Fan
大都市地区收入隔离的最新趋势表明，在20世纪90年代有所下降之后，2000-2010年有所增加，这加强了人们对20世纪70年代以来美国收入不平等总体增长的担忧。然而，证据可能存在系统性的偏见，加剧了上升趋势，因为美国社区调查的有效样本比2000年人口普查的样本要小得多。各普查区之间差异的明显变化，部分原因可能是由于样本较小，抽样变异和偏差程度较高。本研究使用1940年人口普查的100%微观数据来模拟不同采样率的影响，并将这些方法应用于2000年和2007-11年的公开数据。与ACS相关的样本量的减少似乎夸大了这里测试的所有措施的收入隔离增加的证据。
Recent trends in income segregation in metropolitan regions show that, after a decline in the 1990s, there was an increase in 2000-2010 that reinforced concerns about the overall growth in U.S. income inequality since the 1970s. Yet the evidence may be systematically biased to exacerbate the upward trend because the effective sample for the American Community Survey (ACS) is much smaller than it was for the 2000 census to which it is being compared. Apparent changes in disparities across census tracts may result partly from a higher level of sampling variation and bias due to the smaller sample. This study uses 100% microdata from the 1940 census to simulate the impact of different sampling rates and applies those approaches to publicly available data for 2000 and 2007-11. The reduction in sample sizes associated with the ACS appears to exaggerate the evidence for increasing income segregation for all measures tested here.